"Glass half full" on carbon cuts despite IRA losses
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The U.S. is still projected to achieve two-thirds of the emissions cuts from power generation that would have occurred without the rollbacks of the Biden-era climate law and regulations, a new study concludes.
Why it matters: It puts an exclamation point on what we explored yesterday: low-carbon energy is surviving, in weakened form, despite the 2025 GOP budget law that slashed renewables subsidies.
🖼️ The big picture: Author Lily Bermel, a visiting fellow with Columbia's Center on Global Energy Policy, looked ahead at power sources and greenhouse gas emissions from 2025-2035.
- She found that the big picture on electricity was "glass half full" despite the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" and rollback of several EPA rules.
⚽ State of play: It projects levels of fossil fuels vs. clean energy with and without the 2025 law and the removal of power plant regulations.
- 71% of new clean generation and 67% of emissions cuts will occur over those 10 years, relative to 2021 levels, compared to a scenario without the rollbacks, it finds.
🥊 Reality check: The 2025 law and executive policy changes under Trump 2.0 nonetheless have a big effect.
- Fossil fuels fill the gap, with coal plants shutting down more slowly as a result, and gas-fired plants running more. Total fossil generation is 19% higher over the study period.
- And while the paper released by MIT looks at electricity, the 2025 law also ended consumer electric vehicle subsidies, which has slowed sales growth.
📝 Of note: The modeling results — via the firm Energy Innovation's simulator — don't capture various headwinds and tailwinds for clean energy.
- Some of this "real-world context" backs the glass half full frame, the study states. Think Big Tech deals that support geothermal and nuclear projects, for instance.
🔍 What we're watching: Bermel calls for permitting reform and transmission buildout that would lift the "ceiling" on how fast clean power sources are added.
- That includes tech like geothermal and nuclear, which provide always available, "firm" generation that compliments intermittent wind and solar.
Another big goal is "managing" necessary gas use and new plants with stronger environmental standards on methane emissions and more.
The bottom line: "[T]he report's findings reduce the doom narrative that followed the OBBBA's enactment, showing that the transition slows but is not kneecapped, while acknowledging the pressing priority to close the gaps," Bermel writes in a summary.
