Carbon removal leader say Microsoft pause isn't a death blow
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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
The carbon removal industry isn't panicking over Microsoft's recent pullback — at least not yet.
Why it matters: Microsoft has been the sector's biggest buyer, so any shift raises questions about demand for a very new market.
Driving the news: "I really don't think the Microsoft news is the death knell for the carbon removal industry for a couple reasons," said Giana Amador, founding executive director of the Carbon Removal Alliance, in an interview last week on the sidelines of San Francisco Climate Week.
- Microsoft has already committed to buying tens of millions of tons of carbon removal — much of which hasn't been delivered yet.
- Those past deals will still shape the market over the next several years as projects come online and scale.
Reality check: Microsoft's carbon removal purchases — over 36 million tons — far outpace other major buyers, most of whom have committed less than 2 million tons each.
Between the lines: "The carbon removal field has long known that Microsoft could not be the only anchor buyer for the market," Amador said.
- In the near term, the sector is trying to bring in more corporate buyers.
- Longer term, they're looking to governments to create more stable, policy-driven demand.
Zoom in: The bigger issue isn't demand — it's supply, Amador said.
- Most carbon removal projects today operate at thousands of tons per year, far short of the millions of tons companies like Microsoft need.
- That mismatch has made it difficult for buyers to find projects that can deliver at scale.
The bottom line: Microsoft's move may mark a turning point — but more for how the market matures than whether it survives.
