Axios AI+DC: "I don't think it's near an end any time soon," says former defense secretary on Iran war

WASHINGTON – Former top defense officials outlined the challenges of today's shifting landscape as the U.S. faces a "manufacturing crisis" and war with Iran at a reception on Monday that kicked off Axios' AI+DC takeover week.

Why it matters: From cyberattacks and artificial intelligence to autonomous weapons, advanced threats pose new questions for U.S. defense leaders.

Axios' Colin Demarest spoke with former Defense Secretary Mark Esper, now National Security Practice chair at Red Cell Partners, and former deputy defense secretary Kathleen Hicks at the event, sponsored by Skydio.

• Context: Esper headed up defense from 2019-20 in the first Trump administration, and Hicks served as deputy in the department from 2021-25 in President Biden's term.

Driving the news: Roughly a month into the Iran war, "I think the prowess of the U.S. military is once again on display with what we're doing," Esper said. "I think the military objectives are being accomplished. Now, of course, it's unclear what the political objectives are."

• "It could go on for quite some time. I don't think it's near an end any time soon."

Zoom out: "I like to say frequently that the defense industrial base is just a reflection of the overall industrial base, and that's particularly the case as we get more and more integrated dual-use capabilities, commercial technology," Hicks said.

• There's bipartisan agreement across Washington and the industry that the U.S. is experiencing a "manufacturing crisis," she said.

Zoom in: The question is whether AI is being applied in U.S. military operations in Iran, Esper said.

• "I don't know, maybe we won't be able to see it," he said. "I hope it's being used. I hope we're deploying the latest, greatest in terms of the AI being provided to the department, but that's obviously not obvious to us."

The bottom line: People should focus on how autonomous systems and AI will be used in combat, Esper said.

• "The question is going to be, are you concerned about collateral damage and civilian casualties? Yes, of course," he said.
• "But if you find that an autonomous system is less likely to kill a civilian or create collateral damage than a 19-year-old young infantryman, then why not employ that tool?"

Content from the sponsor's remarks:

In a View From the Top conversation, Skydio co-founder and CEO Adam Bry explained how the Skydio Dock hardware can replace the "old way" of operating a drone, in which a person would need to be present to fly it around.

• "The new way is you install the Dock anywhere that you might need a drone, and it turns it into a fully autonomous device, so it can be flown and operated remotely, controlled via the cloud, scheduled in programs to run missions," he said.
• "It's really a paradigm shift in the way these things are used, and we're already seeing 10 times or more scale of usage and impact."