Unpacking Trump's claim on India halting Russian oil imports
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Photo illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios. Photo: Suzanne Plunkett/Getty Images
India has "committed" to stop importing Russian oil, President Trump says, putting in black and white a claim that White House officials have recently made.
Why it matters: The news — which Trump wrote in a tariff-lowering executive order on Friday — is big, if it's true.
- India became a major market for discounted Russian barrels after Europe and others shunned Kremlin oil over the invasion of Ukraine.
- Those revenues help keep the grinding campaign going.
Yes, but: Russian oil exports to India — its second-largest crude market behind China — have indeed been falling amid U.S. pressure.
- They were down 29% month-over-month in December, per the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, and slipped again to 1.2 million barrels per day last month, per analytics firm Kpler data via Reuters.
- It's well below the roughly 2 million barrels per day in mid-2025.
Reality check: Analysts are dubious about Trump's claim of India fully phasing out Russian oil, despite reductions as the nations negotiate a trade deal.
- "What we are seeing instead is tactical adjustment," Tatiana Mitrova, a fellow at Columbia's Center on Global Energy Policy.
- "Volumes are reduced at the margin, discounts are increased, and refiners diversify some purchases toward non-sanctioned crudes," she said via email.
- This allows India to "signal responsiveness to US pressure without abandoning cost-competitive supply."
The intrigue: One reason for skepticism is that the joint India-U.S. statement on a "framework" for an interim trade deal doesn't mention imports of Russian oil.
- "For economic, diplomatic, and strategic reasons, India is highly unlikely to stop buying cheap oil from Russia, one of its closest partners," Atlantic Council senior fellow Michael Kugelman wrote in a post last week.
- His view hasn't changed since Trump's exec order claim late Friday, he tells Axios.
Meanwhile, Trump threatened new tariffs on countries doing business with Iran, and the U.S. expanded oil sanctions on Iran on Friday, targeting 14 more "shadow fleet" tankers and companies trading in Iranian oil products.
- The pressure comes amid U.S.-Iran talks over Iran's nuclear program and Trump administration threats of a military strike.
What we're watching: How much the squeeze on Russian oil, alongside fresh EU pressure, might change talks over a settlement in Ukraine.
- EU leaders on Friday proposed a "full maritime services ban for Russian crude oil," saying it would "slash further Russia's energy revenues and make it more difficult to find buyers for its oil."
Sign up here for Axios' Future of Energy newsletter.
