Shapiro's climate program exit raises questions about 2028 politics
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Let's size up Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro's (D) latest energy move through 2028-tinted glasses.
Catch up quick: He just agreed to a state budget that includes pulling Pennsylvania out of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative.
- That's the power plant cap-and-trade system among Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states, and Wednesday's move angered environmentalists.
- Pennsylvania's participation has long been tied up in court.
State of play: Shapiro blamed state Republicans for using RGGI as an "excuse to stall substantive conversations about energy."
- He's pushing his own state energy plan that supports renewables, nuclear and fossil fuels. It includes a state-based cap-and-trade program.
Between the lines: Muhlenberg College political scientist Christopher Borick called RGGI membership an "uncomfortable political fit for Shapiro," whose state is a huge gas producer.
- Shapiro's been seeking alternatives that defuse claims he's hurting the state's economy, but that don't alienate him from Democrats and progressives, he said.
- "I think the budget crisis may have given Shapiro an out on RGGI that makes both his reelection in 2026 and a possible presidential run less encumbered by this particular matter," Borick, who heads the school's Institute of Public Opinion, said via email.
The intrigue: The decision was about solving a budget impasse, not 2028 politics, Penn State Harrisburg political scientist Daniel Mallinson said.
- It made sense for Shapiro, who was never a fan anyway.
- "There is also good political cover at the moment due to consumers [who are] already feeling the effects of inflation across the economy," he said in an email.
The bottom line: "The political trick down the road, however, will be how to explain this to the progressive wing of the party in a presidential primary," he said, "but I would expect Shapiro to run more in the moderate lane so it won't hurt him there."
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