U.S. pullback takes big bite out of global clean energy growth forecast
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
U.S. policy changes are taking a bite out of global renewable power growth, even as the trajectory remains sharply upward, new data shows.
Why it matters: The U.S. pivot helps fuel what's an overall glass half-full takeaway from the International Energy Agency's latest renewables outlook.
The big picture: Global renewables capacity is slated to double by 2030, adding another 4,600 gigawatts.
- That's akin to adding China's, the EU's and Japan's total power generating capacity combined.
- Solar is slated to account for 80% of global additions through 2030.
Yes, but: The world is nonetheless off pace to meet the pledge, set at the 2023 UN climate summit, of tripling capacity by 2030.
Threat level: IEA revised its global estimates downward (see above). A major reason is the agency has shaved a whopping 45% off its U.S. 2030 outlook.
- That's thanks to new policies that phase out tax credits faster, limit imports, thwart offshore wind plans, and restrict wind and solar on federal lands.
State of play: Chinese policy changes also trimmed the growth outlook in what's by far the world's largest renewables market.
- But China nonetheless accounts for 60% of all global capacity growth in the study period.
The latest: Speaking of renewables, the think tank Ember said in a separate report today that actual generation — not just capacity! — from all renewable sources combined overtook coal in the first half of 2025.
- IEA's analysis similarly sees renewable generation outpacing coal at the end of this year or by mid-2026.
The bottom line: Renewables have mojo, with capacity in most nations slated to rise faster in 2025-2030 than the prior half decade.
- "However, challenges including grid integration, supply chain vulnerabilities and financing are also increasing," IEA said.
