Analysts foresee critical minerals obstacles from new Trump law

• But there's a catch: clean tech sectors losing incentives are among the demand drivers that support new projects.

What they're saying: The law's quick removal of EV purchase subsidies is one hurdle, write Gracelin Baskaran and Meredith Schwartz.

• "Without this policy support and facing an uncertain demand outlook, automakers are less inclined to enter into long-term mineral offtake agreements — making it more difficult for domestic mining projects to attract investment," they write.

Friction point: Another challenge is the early-2030s phasedown of the 45X production tax credit for critical mineral components.

• "Given the long timelines for developing new mines and ramping up production, the revisions to Section 45X will dampen the credit's impact on the mining sector."

The bottom line: The new law provides billions of dollars of support for stockpiles and supply chains, but Baskaran and Schwartz predict a limited effect absent stronger demand-side policy.