Clean energy's political test looms now that Trump bill is law
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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
The 2026 midterms will test clean energy's uncertain political salience as advocates attempt to tether it to economic matters that voters prioritize.
Why it matters: Both chambers of Congress are narrowly divided and up for grabs next year.
The big picture: Democratic and green group campaigns will argue the GOP's "big beautiful bill" that President Trump signed Friday will raise costs and cut jobs.
- It will be an effort to flip the script on the inflation emphasis and promises of lower costs that were a foundation of the GOP's 2024 message.
State of play: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's early list of targeted districts overlaps heavily with 13 House Republicans who voted for their chamber's plan but urged the Senate to soften it.
- They include competitive seats held by Republicans like Jen Kiggans (Va.), Gabe Evans (Colo.) and Juan Ciscomani (Ariz.).
- "Despite falsely proclaiming their concerns, House Republicans — including some of their most vulnerable members — knowingly voted to cut jobs, slash investments, and raise energy costs in their districts when they voted for the Big, Ugly Bill," DCCC spokeswoman Courtney Rice tells Axios.
The other side: While several polls show the bill is unpopular, Republicans will look to play political offense — especially emphasizing tax cuts and border security measures.
- Republicans plan to message their legislative victory by branding Democrats' opposition as voting to raise taxes on small businesses and American families, according to an internal memo from the GOP's House campaign's arm shared with Axios' Kate Santaliz.
Friction point: Look for Dems and allied groups to cite recent analyses on two topics — IRA and infrastructure law investments and jobs flowing heavily to red states and districts, and potential for higher utility bills when incentives go away.
Reality check: The political relevance of low-carbon energy is unclear at best. Democrats lost the House in 2022, shortly after the IRA's passage.
- Nor did emphasizing clean energy investments stop them from losing the Senate or White House last year, despite messaging on jobs and costs.
- I'm not saying the IRA is why they lost, but there are plenty of reasons to question its political potency, and more broadly whether voters will prioritize clean tech.
- As our colleague Hans Nichols notes, the election cycle is still early, and other potential events — such as war or recession — can always make the current issue set look small.
Yes, but: This time around, candidates can point more easily to the risk of investments in specific states and districts.
- Some projects are already getting canceled as Trump officials pull back funding under the IRA and 2021 infrastructure law.
What's next: League of Conservation Voters President Pete Maysmith tells Axios that votes on the bill will play a "very significant role" in their midterm election work — and gave a taste of messages to come.
- "The Republican Congress just broke their promise to the American people and to voters, and that was to cut costs, and instead, what they've done is jack up costs, starting with people's utility bills, but not stopping there, including health care, groceries and a myriad of other things," he said in an interview.
- LCV is an important player — the group spent $44 million combined on House and Senate races in the 2024 cycle.
