What to expect for July 4 weather: Storms and heat
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Children huddle under umbrellas during a rainstorm in Cape Cod on July 4, 2023. (Photo: Mark Makela/Getty Images)
Your July 4 fireworks and barbecues may be indoors this year — depending on the weather.
Why it matters: Scorching hot temperatures and widespread thunderstorms may disrupt your festivities or cause travel delays for the record-number of people hitting the road this holiday weekend.
Here's on the menu for July 4 weather.
What to expect for July 4th weather
Zoom out: Much of the United States will see clear skies for fireworks. But it might be hot. Like, really hot.
- Parts of the Upper Plains will see temperatures surge 10 to 20 degrees above average on Thursday and Friday, according to NOAA's weather outlook for the weekend. A cold front will push that hot air to the Great Lakes and Appalachians over the weekend.
- Parts of Minnesota are under a heat advisory, with the heat index near 100 degrees.
- The Southeast will also see higher temperatures, according to NOAA, and triple digit temperatures are expected in parts of Texas.
What they're saying: Bryan Jackson, a meteorologist at the NWS Weather Prediction Center, told Axios that those in Wisconsin, Minnesota and the upper Midwest should stay weather aware due to the heat.
The other side: The Western U.S. will face below average temperatures caused by breezes off the Pacific Ocean, according to NOAA.
- "It's still 104 in Phoenix, but that's below normal," Jackson said.
- Areas of the Northeast — including Philadelphia, Boston and New York City — as well as North Dakota are under threat from storms to end the week, too. But "sunny, summer conditions" and "pretty great weather" are on tap for the Northeast this weekend, Jackson said.
Travel delays for July 4 are possible
Context: AAA projects 72.2 million Americans will travel domestically for the July 4 holiday period (defined as June 28 through July 6).
- TSA expects over 18.5 million travelers to be screened from July 1 to July 7.
- "This year, we're seeing strong demand for road trips, flights, and cruises, especially with the holiday falling on a Friday," Debbie Haas, vice president of AAA Travel, said in a statement. "This is allowing travelers to extend their getaways and make lasting memories with loved ones."
Yes, but: Rain could cause travel delays.
- Sections of the Southwestern U.S. — Texas, New Mexico and Arizona — will face downpours Thursday and Friday, according to NOAA's weather outlook.
- A frontal system could develop into a tropical storm off the coast of Florida, according to NOAA's National Hurricane Center.
Flashback: Showers and thunderstorms boomed in Florida, Baltimore and Washington, D.C., earlier this week. Congress was even worried about travel headaches ahead of the vote on President Trump's "big, beautiful bill."
- Thunderstorms caused ground stops in New York City, and Washington, D.C., on Tuesday.
July 4 fire warnings
What to know: Parts of Oregon, Idaho, Nevada and Utah are facing red flag warnings, according to the National Weather Service's weather outlook.
- "Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible" this weekend in the West, the NWS said.
- Wildfires erupted in California earlier week amid dry conditions, which are projected to last through at least Friday, per a forecast discussion from the National Weather Service's LA office.
