Jul 3, 2025 - Energy & Climate
What's next as energy overhaul heads for Trump's desk
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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
Here are a few things worth watching now that the GOP budget plan is on the cusp of final passage and President Trump's signature.
Renewables' and EVs' path ahead. Solar, wind and EVs face an aggressive loss of incentives in the plan.
- State of play: The Princeton-led REPEAT Project is out with preliminary estimates of the bill, which shakes up the landscape for many kinds of tech.
- The big picture: It sees $500 billion less in cumulative electricity and "clean fuels" investment from 2025-2035 than what would otherwise occur.
- What we're watching: The analysis sees 72 fewer gigawatts of wind and solar capacity additions by 2030.
The midterm politics. Democrats will hit Republicans over reduced low-carbon energy investment in red states.
- Yes, but: The political salience of clean energy is hardly clear — the IRA did not appear to provide a big 2024 lift — so the midterms are the next test.
Oil industry appetites. The bill expands and speeds up leasing, and under more favorable terms. That includes offshore and Arctic regions in Alaska.
- The big picture: These and other provisions reverse what Republicans and the industry call undue restrictions that Biden officials imposed on domestic energy.
- Yes, but: The new access will reveal industry interest — or lack thereof — in expensive, long-term projects in Alaska, home to massive hydrocarbon deposits.
Tesla's tough road. In addition to scuttling consumer purchase credits, the bill ends civil penalties on automakers that don't meet fuel efficiency rules.
- Threat level: This and Trump's executive steps to ease auto standards could greatly cut the market for regulatory credits. They're a major revenue source for Tesla, which is mired in a sales slump.
