Global clean-energy investment doubles fossil fuels
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
Record capital is flowing into energy despite lots of geopolitical tension and economic uncertainty, but the picture varies among technologies, a new global analysis finds.
Why it matters: The International Energy Agency's investment report tallies regional and source-specific trends at a time when the world remains badly off pace for reaching Paris Agreement goals.
A few high-level takeaways from the huge annual report...
New is outpacing old and it's not close.
- Investment in "clean" tech — a catch-all term for renewables, grid tech, storage, nuclear and more — is slated to reach $2.2 trillion this year.
- That's twice the $1.1T for coal, gas and oil, IEA finds.
Electrons are outpacing molecules in new spending.
- Electricity sector investment is slated to reach $1.5T in 2025, "some 50% higher than the total amount being spent on bringing oil, natural gas and coal to market."
But don't forget the whole supply pie is growing.
- Global demand for coal, gas and oil — together the world's dominant sources — is still rising.
- Coal supply investments are projected to grow 4% this year, driven by China and India.
- Spending on new LNG facilities is on a "strong upward trajectory," and approvals of new gas-fired power are growing.
The oil picture is a little different.
- Lower prices and modest demand growth projections have upstream oil and gas investment slated to fall this year, driven by a sharp decline among independent producers.
- The projected 6% drop would be the first year-over-year decline since the COVID slump and the largest since 2016.
As always, the numbers out of China are remarkable.
- The country's share of global clean investment grew from a quarter to a third over the last decade alone.
- But everything is bigger in China. It green-lit almost 100 gigawatts of new coal-fired power plants last year.
Data centers are driving investments in clean tech and fossil fuels alike.
- One snapshot: IEA sees $18 billion in cumulative investment in gas-fired generation specifically to meet data center demand by 2030.
Green finance faces setbacks on multiple fronts.
- The "remarkable growth" in energy VC over the last decade has ended for now, with another drop in 2025 to follow declines the past two years.
- While some elements of sustainable finance remain "robust," the prior "flurry of activity" from banks to green their practices has slowed "as regulatory and policy support has ebbed in key markets."
What we're watching: An exceptionally fluid landscape.
- "[S]ome investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach to new project approvals" amid cloudy trade and economic outlooks, it states.
- That said, "we have yet to see significant implications for spending on existing projects."
Go deeper: These huge IEA reports are something of a choose-your-own-adventure, so do check out the whole thing.
