Tesla Q1 deliveries could show buyer backlash to Musk's politics

• Plunging European sales data has already been rolling in, along with lesser declines in the U.S. and China from third-party providers (Tesla doesn't provide regional tallies).
• Political fury around Musk was on display over the weekend with anti-Tesla protests in the U.S. and abroad.

The automaker's deliveries, a proxy for sales, fell on a yearly basis last year despite a record Q4.

What they're saying: "I think a great wrong is being done to the people of Tesla and to our customers," Musk told Fox News last week.

What's next: Estimates vary but point to a decline compared to Q1 2024, when Tesla delivered roughly 387,000 vehicles.

• Deutsche Bank estimates something in the 340k-350k range, while Morgan Stanley Tesla optimist Adam Jonas sees a 9.3% decline to 351k.
• Wedbush Securities' Dan Ives (also a Tesla bull) projects 355k-360k. Per multiple reports, Tesla itself compiled a wider analyst consensus of roughly 377.5k.

Yes, but: There's no way of knowing exactly how much of the sales slump is about Musk vs. other headwinds — notably an aging lineup and rising competition.

• Ives sees 30% of "very soft" Q1 deliveries stemming from "Musk/brand/DOGE" while 70% "is more timing and non-brand headwind issues."

• But he remains a Tesla bull, arguing that customers are waiting on a Model Y refresh and a long-planned low-cost vehicle.
• Other analysts remain similarly optimistic long-term, largely agreeing with Musk's thesis that Tesla's true edge lies in automation, robotics and AI.

The bottom line: "There is some level of brand damage happening in Western Europe and pockets within the US/Canada caused by Elon Musk's political activities, in turn hurting demand," Deutsche Bank's note states.

• "How material is this? It is difficult to quantify but it is something we will certainly continue to monitor."