Global warming's deadly toll on hospitals
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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
Heat waves can gum up hospitals enough to bring deadly consequences even beyond patients directly afflicted, a new study finds.
Why it matters: It's the first estimate of extreme heat that "unpacks the direct from the indirect effects that arise due to hospital congestion," it states.
The big picture: The working paper released via the National Bureau of Economic Research uses Mexican health care datasets to explore mortality at different temperature ranges.
- It covers ER and hospital admissions from 2012–2019 at facilities under Mexico's Ministry of Health.
What they found: When daily highs exceed 93.2°F, ER visits rise roughly 7.5% and admissions rise around 4% relative to the 71.6°F to 75.2°F range.
- There's a significant rise in "excess deaths."
- This stems partly from congestion, which leads to discharging more quickly (including to homes without AC), and thinly spread resources.
Threat level: "An extra day at which the maximum temperature exceeds 34°C leads to a 6% increase in deaths within the hospital, with over half of these due purely to congestion spillovers, and a 6% increase in deaths at home."
Yes, but: The study — from researchers with Universidad de los Andes, UC-San Diego and Columbia — has limitations.
- Disentangling direct and indirect effects of heat exposure is tough because high temps worsen multiple conditions.
The bottom line: "Increasing capacity in the healthcare system is a novel arrow that can be added to the rather limited quiver of climate adaptation tools," it concludes.
