Data uses, other unknowns cloud talk of future AI energy demand
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A fascinating — and frustrating — through-line in the discussion of AI's energy demand is the stack of variables that make the future cloudy as hell.
Why it matters: Powerful data centers are fueling wider growth in electricity use, but estimates of how much and how fast are all over the map.
State of play: That's driven home by a new International Energy Agency commentary, which cites variables including:
- What exactly AI users do with the tech. Creating video, for instance, is far more energy-intensive than text generation or AI-enabled search.
- The outlook for hardware and software efficiency improvements. (Side note: it's not always clear that more efficiency = less long-term energy use.)
- Inadequate electricity generation and grid capacity where it's most needed could become a check on growth.
Catch up quick: IEA raised eyebrows last week with estimates of future data center power needs that are pretty modest compared to several others.
- They see data centers as a pretty small contributor to this decade's overall increase in global electricity thirst.
- That said, they also emphasize how data centers can create major strains on local grids.
What we're watching: Whether and when estimates start converging. In the nearer term, a December IEA conference will focus on the AI-energy nexus.
