Green hydrogen has a reality check
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New reports together present a sobering view of the potential for large-scale hydrogen production using renewable electricity.
Why it matters: Climate-friendly hydrogen can slash carbon from heavy industries, power, and moving freight. But volumes today are tiny.
Driving the news: A Harvard study finds "green" hydrogen won't go beyond "niche" uses without big cost reductions.
- The paper in Joule says many analyses don't adequately weigh the expense of storage and distribution infrastructure — not just production.
- Reminder: "Green" hydrogen means using renewable electricity to power equipment that splits water into hydrogen and oxygen.
State of play: Elsewhere this week, the International Energy Agency projected hydrogen made with renewables will be just 4% of the world's total in 2030.
- And risk management firm DNV — looking at all forms of hydrogen — downgraded its 2050 projection of its share in the global energy mix by 20%. But that said, they do see various low-carbon methods taking up growing shares.
The big picture: The Harvard paper estimates that today, total costs are between $500–$1,250 per ton of CO2 avoided using green hydrogen.
- That's so high that even if predicted production cost declines materialize, the wider basket of expenses make it uncompetitive beyond limited applications like making ammonia.
Yes, but: None of this is destiny!
- A separate IEA report last week noted major growth in project announcements, though few have reached final investment stage.
- It calls for stronger national policies to stimulate demand.
And the peer-reviewed Harvard study doesn't rule out green hydrogen one day becoming widely used.
But there's an "urgent need" for R&D to cut storage and distribution costs.
What they're saying: Carnegie Mellon University's Valerie Karplus tells Axios that the paper provides an important look at costs across the value chain — and the uncertainty bands around them.
- "If we look longer term, the potential for both technological innovation and clever business models to bring down some of these costs is enormous," said Karplus, a professor in the engineering and public policy department who wasn't involved with the Harvard study.
What we're watching: In the U.S., the Treasury Department plans to complete rules this year for tapping major IRA hydrogen tax subsidies.
