A renewable milestone is around the corner
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Global renewable power generation — real output, not just capacity! — should pass coal in 2025, the International Energy Agency's new outlook finds.
Why it matters: It's testament to the rapid rise (see above), led by solar, that could see renewables provide nearly half of global power generation by 2030.
- IEA sees the world getting rather close to tripling capacity by 2030, a goal set at last year's UN climate summit, but falling short without stronger policies.
The big picture: The agency projects another 5,500 gigawatts of capacity arriving by 2030, with annual growth by then that's 70% faster than last year's record pace.
- Nearly all that rise comes from solar and wind, the agency said, citing their economic attractiveness.
Reality check: Growth is uneven and largely centered in China, which IEA sees accounting for 60% of global capacity expansion by decade's end.
- The COP28 tripling goal is "within reach" but demands knocking down barriers — like inadequate transmission — to grid integration.
- The report cites risks of increased "curtailment," or wasted generation.
Stunning stats: The outlook is glum on "green" hydrogen, calling it a "negligible" driver of renewables growth through 2030.
- They see hydrogen driving just 1% of renewable capacity expansion.
- Hydrogen produced with renewables is forecast to reach only 4% of the world's total in 2030.
What's next: IEA wants "bold" new renewables provisions in nations' next emissions pledges under the Paris Agreement, which are due in early 2025.
- Its statement alongside the data also urges more international cooperation to cut financing costs in developing nations, which are holding back growth.
