Joe Biden's legacy on climate and energy
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President Biden's work on climate change is unprecedented — but his record is fragile as he steps aside from seeking a second term.
Why it matters: The U.S. is the world's largest historical carbon emitter and the second-largest today behind China.
- Future U.S. emissions — and leaders' success at spurring action abroad — will help sway how much Earth heats up and the damages in tow.
The big picture: "President Biden leaves office with the strongest record on climate change of any president in U.S. history," said Jason Bordoff, the founding director of Columbia's Center on Global Energy Policy.
Catch up quick: Biden, in a remarkable shift, on Sunday announced he's dropping out and endorsed VP Kamala Harris.
State of play: He worked with Capitol Hill Democrats to enact by far the largest climate bill in history.
- The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act provides hundreds of billions of dollars in tax subsidies and grants for low-carbon energy projects, supply chains, electric car purchases and far more.
- Biden also issued major emissions-cutting regulations; re-entered the Paris Climate Agreement that President Trump had abandoned; and wove climate into the fabric of decision-making across the government.
Friction point: The durability of Biden's work is unclear.
- Supreme Court rulings in recent months and years curtailed agencies' powers to regulate without detailed blessings from Congress. Those could spell trouble for Biden's CO2-cutting mandates on utilities and automakers.
- Opponents of the 2022 climate law likely lack votes to kill it, but could chip away at pieces.
- A Trump administration could slow implementation, and more broadly, Trump strongly opposes federal rules and incentives that support electric vehicles.
Yes, but: Bordoff tells Axios that Biden's financial support for climate-friendly energy could prove sturdy.
- "Most of that investment is happening in red states with strong support from the business community, suggesting a possible durability to these clean energy investments even with a change in political control of the White House," he said via email.
The intrigue: While environmental groups mostly cheered the White House, some activists wanted more efforts to hinder fossil fuel exploration and production.
- Under Biden, the U.S. extended its lead as the world's largest oil producer, reaching fresh records. The U.S. also became the world's biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas.
- If Trump is elected, he would likely end the Energy Department's pause on new LNG export licenses to major markets, and push for wider drilling on federal lands and waters, among other shifts.
The other side: GOP and industry critics say Biden's policies weaken the U.S. economically and geopolitically, arguing he's deterred exploration that would help sustain future production and investment.
- They point to steps like barring development on huge swaths of Alaskan federal lands and the pause on new LNG export licenses to major markets, to name just two.
What they're saying: "President Biden fought tirelessly for the historic investments in climate, clean energy, and environmental justice in the Inflation Reduction Act, the single biggest thing our country has ever done to address the climate crisis," League of Conservation Voters President Gene Karpinski said in a statement.
Here's a sampling of data points that help tell the story of U.S. energy under Biden — and where it may go next.
🛢️ 13.2 million barrels per day. That's U.S. crude oil production, which is at record levels and extending its world lead.
- State of play: Most output growth under Biden reflects investment and decisions made years in advance. But many activists wanted a harder line against fossil fuels.
- Catch up quick: The U.S. is also the world's largest LNG exporter, moving ahead of Qatar and Australia last year.
💵 $639 billion. That's the domestic public and private investment in major segments of "clean" energy and transportation technologies between 2021 and Q1 of 2024, per tracking by the Rhodium Group and MIT.
- Go deeper: Full analysis and methodology.
What we're watching: The politics of energy and climate in the race as Harris becomes the presumed front-runner to lead the Democratic ticket against Donald Trump.
- She embodies Biden's record on these topics. But Harris held positions during her brief 2019 presidential run that diverge from the White House posture — and will likely draw GOP attacks.
The bottom line: Biden's legacy is very big — if it sticks.
This story has been updated with statistics from Biden's time in office.
