Jan 24, 2024 - Energy & Environment

Non-OPEC countries could boost global supply in 2024

Total quarterly oil supply
Source:International Energy Agency; Chart: Deena Zaidi/Axios Visuals

Record-setting oil production in non-OPEC nations like Brazil and the U.S. should help make up for production cuts and supply disruptions coming out of the Middle East, the International Energy Agency suggests.

Why it matters: Recent supply disruptions and decreases in production from OPEC+ members, which includes OPEC members and countries including Russia and Kazakhstan, have generated concerns about supply interruptions, and the potential for higher oil prices.

Yes, but: According to monthly IEA data, non-OPEC+ countries will be driving the oil supply wave in 2024. The report tracks global energy supply and security.

By the numbers: Fueled by record-setting output by non-OPEC+ economies like Brazil, Canada, and Guyana, global supply is forecasted to rise by 1.5 million barrels per day, setting a new high of 103.5 million barrels per day by the second quarter of 2024.

  • With global demand projected to grow at a slightly slower rate — due in part to sluggish economic conditions in China, the world's second-largest crude oil consumer — inventories are projected to rise next year. It potentially puts downward pressure on prices.

What they're saying: "A 2024 market where oil supply growth is sufficient to cover growth in demand is one of the reasons why investors today perceive oil to be an unattractive investment opportunity," J.P. Morgan analysts wrote in a recent research note.

  • "This perception is a marked turnaround from even a year ago when the consensus view was that … OPEC and its allies had a firm grip on the market."
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