Sober climate data shows why COP28 matters
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Taken together, three new analyses highlight the relentless march of climate change — and what's in store without much stronger policies.
Driving the news: The Global Carbon Project (GCP) estimates fossil-related carbon dioxide emissions rose another 1.1% to a new record.
- That's despite surging renewables, and falling emissions in developed economies like the U.S. and EU, the researchers found. Axios' Rebecca Falconer has more.
- And a World Meteorological Organization report concludes the rate of climate change "surged alarmingly" from 2011-2020.
What they found: Not only was it the warmest decade on record, but glacier and sea ice loss were "unprecedented," the UN weather agency said.
- Glaciers thinned by roughly 1 meter per year, while more countries reported record high temperatures than in any other decade.
Zoom in: "The Antarctic continental ice sheet lost nearly 75% more ice between 2011-2020 than it did in 2001-2010," a WMO summary notes, calling this "ominous" for sea-level rise.
What's next: Climate Action Tracker projects warming sailing dangerously past Paris targets, even if nations implement their current pledges.
- Their latest estimate ticked up slightly, to 2.5°C above preindustrial levels by 2100, thanks to increasing emissions in countries with "weak" targets.
- It's worse when you look at real-world actions based on current policies, which bring an estimate of 2.7°C — no improvement from their 2021 estimate.
Yes, but: Researchers see some bright spots.
- GCP sees China's emissions rising 4% this year (not good!), but strong renewables deployment is preventing even higher growth.
- U.S. coal emissions are falling sharply, while EU fossil emissions are down 7.4% this year.
What we're watching: Who knows whether this grim choose-your-own-adventure of threat metrics will influence COP28 negotiations.
- These reports certainly underscore the urgency of the need for very steep emissions cuts, which are nowhere in evidence yet.
- But government policies and investments are motivated by all kinds of considerations and national interests. And scary data is nothing new.
The bottom line: The window to meet Paris goals is shutting fast.
- The University of Exeter's Pierre Friedlingstein, a GCP co-author, said in a statement that "it now looks inevitable we will overshoot the 1.5°C target."
- "Leaders meeting at COP28 will have to agree [to] rapid cuts in fossil fuel emissions even to keep the 2°C target alive."
