Oil's October whiplash suggests rally may be temporary

The big picture: One reason gets to an important phenomenon: tracking gasoline demand, which moves oil markets, is not an exact science.

• The Goldman note argues that some measures of falling U.S. consumption are "overdone."
• "[A]lternative measures of demand implied by ethanol blending and from the DoE ('unadjusted demand'), and physical prices suggest demand remains robust," they write.

The intrigue: Elsewhere, despite recession worries, they argue that while "higher rates will likely weigh on GDP and oil demand growth, the soft landing remains on track."

• Goldman also cites "technical factors," like last week's expiration of the November Brent contract, behind the drop.

What's next: Goldman argues that inventory draws, "robust demand" and OPEC's pricing power together will keep Brent in the $80-$105 range.

Yes, but: Predicting oil prices is notoriously tough, but other analysts see the potential for crude to rebound after the steep selloff.

• "If China's outlook continues to improve, we could easily see a return back to the $90 level," Oanda analyst Edward Moya said in a note.
• He also notes that OPEC+ has worked hard to get oil to $90 and "further bearishness could also trigger further output cuts by OPEC+."