Apr 11, 2022 - Energy & Environment

Here come the EVs

Data: Environmental Defense Fund; Chart: Axios Visuals

A pair of new analyses show how electric cars are becoming increasingly mainstream, with a lot more on the way.

Driving the news: The research firm BloombergNEF estimates that the number of plug-in vehicles on the world's roads will top 20 million in June.

  • "That’s remarkable growth from only 1 million EVs on roads in 2016," writes Colin McKerracher, a top BloombergNEF transport analyst.
  • He sees the number reaching over 26 million by the end of the year.

Why it matters: "The speed of growth is much faster than many incumbents in the automotive and oil industries were expecting just a few years ago," McKerracher writes.

The intrigue: While China and Europe are the biggest markets, a separate report by the consultancy ERM notes the growing availability of models in the U.S.

  • The number of fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles for sale under $100,000 will be well above 100 by mid-decade, per the analysis prepared for the Environmental Defense Fund.
  • That includes a growing number of SUVs and pickups, the vehicle types at the heart of the U.S. market, as you can see above.

The big picture: "Carmakers worldwide will spend more than $515 billion through 2030 developing new electrified passenger vehicle models," ERM finds.

What we're watching: While the report notes several drivers of sales growth, it comes as President Biden's push for a major expansion of consumer incentives remains stuck on Capitol Hill.

  • It also points out that while global EV sales kept growing during the pandemic, the supply chain woes are still having an effect.
  • "Projected long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on vehicle sales — both ICE and EV — remain unclear."

Go deeper: The report provides an in-depth look at specific manufacturer plans, policy drivers and a lot more.

Go deeper