Global sales of electric passenger vehicles are projected to surpass 10.5 million this year, about 4 million above 2021 levels, as the tech grows more mainstream, the research firm BloombergNEF said in a new report.
Driving the news: Its 2022 outlook for battery-electric and plug-in hybrids sees a number of forces rowing in the same direction.
- There are more models on the market, tougher climate policies, fleet purchases, automakers pushing cars with a plug, and other factors.
Why it matters: While noting policy is important, the analysis also states, "the passenger EV market is shifting from one driven by policy to one driven by organic consumer demand."
Zoom in: Here are a few other takeaways from the 2022 outlook...
- China remains the biggest market and is projected to account for over half of global sales this year, with Europe around 30% and the U.S. the third-largest market.
- The market for commercial-use electric delivery vans and trucks is growing. Bloomberg sees a 75% increase in zero-emissions sales this year.
Yes, but: "The surge in EV demand is putting unprecedented pressure on supply chains, and we expect prices for raw materials like lithium and nickel to remain high."
What we're watching: Congress. The push by Democrats to greatly expand consumer purchase incentives is stuck as the wider social spending and climate package lacks enough Senate votes.
- BloombergNEF calls the outlook "murky" but predicts something will get through.
- The full $7,500 credit is currently capped at 200,000 vehicles per manufacturer. Tesla and GM have already hit the cap.
- BloombergNEF sees Toyota, Ford and perhaps Nissan hitting the cap this year.