UN: Nations' official climate plans fall far short of Paris goals

Threat level: The report analyzed 165 pledges, called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), including revised 2030 targets submitted as of mid-October.

• Overall, the existing plans would bring greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 that are 16% higher than 2010 levels, the UN found.
• The UN says that such an increase, "unless changed quickly," could bring temperature rise of about 2.7°C (almost 4.9°F) above preindustrial levels by the end of the century.

The big picture: The 2015 Paris deal calls for limiting warming to "well below" 2°C and ideally 1.5°C, but the latter target is fast slipping out of reach.

• Those are benchmarks for avoiding some of the most significant harms from climate change beyond damage already baked into the cake.
• "Overshooting the temperature goals will lead to a destabilized world and endless suffering, especially among those who have contributed the least to the GHG emissions in the atmosphere," Patricia Espinosa, the top UN climate official, said in a statement alongside the report.

Yes, but: The report analysis of 165 existing and updated NDCs considered only revisions submitted through Oct. 12.

• A handful have arrived since. More importantly China, by far the world's largest emitter, and India, the third largest, have yet to submit revisions to their existing targets.
• They could increase their pledges before the summit opens Oct. 31, or during the two-week event.
• Nonetheless, targets submitted under the Paris framework are non-binding and represent aspirational goals.