Modeling a pathway to clean transportation

Wringing carbon emissions out of transportation isn't easy, but new analysis sees a cost-effective path to major reductions over the next decade.

Why it matters: Combined emissions from cars, trucks and other transport segments overtook electric power as the nation's biggest CO2 source several years ago.

How it works: The Rhodium Group modeled proposed policies to speed the uptake of electric vehicles and boost efficiency, including...

• Lifting the per-manufacturer cap on $7,500 consumer tax credits for buying EVs.
• Major grants for public charging installations.
• 10% investment tax credits for electric medium- and heavy-duty vehicle buys and waiver of federal excise taxes for big trucks.
• Grants for school districts to go electric with their buses.
• On the regulatory front, aggressive CO2 emissions standards.

The big picture: Extending the current incentives and charging build-out can push electric passenger vehicles from 2% of 2020 sales to 52% in 2031, the report concludes.

• And check out the chart above, which adds tough standards and incentives for trucks and buses and so forth.
• It all adds up to significant emissions cuts, but it's still very far from total decarbonization because vehicle fleets take a long time to turn over.

What we're watching: The analysis arrives as the White House and Congress are negotiating over infrastructure plans.