Emissions modeling underscores need for sweeping energy transformations
International Energy Agency modeling underscores the kind of sweeping energy transformations needed in the relatively near future to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goals.
The big picture: The chart above via IEA's World Energy Outlook last October shows changes in demand for various fuel sources in three IEA scenarios.
- The first shows its estimates under nations' current and announced policies at the time, which bring warming well in excess of the targets.
- The second two are pathways for keeping the very ambitious 1.5 °C target in sight to varying degrees by reaching net-zero emissions in 3-5 decades (but it's complicated and you can read more about them here).
Why it matters: Keeping the Paris targets in sight requires huge changes this decade. The chart shows greatly accelerated renewables deployment, a steep drop in coal use and other big shifts.
- IEA's hardly alone in the long-term scenario business and any multidecade look-ahead is stuffed with uncertainties.
- But what's common among scenarios for holding warming significantly in check is a rapid shift away from fossil fuels.