Apr 19, 2021 - Energy & Climate
Emissions modeling underscores need for sweeping energy transformations
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International Energy Agency modeling underscores the kind of sweeping energy transformations needed in the relatively near future to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goals.
The big picture: The chart above via IEA's World Energy Outlook last October shows changes in demand for various fuel sources in three IEA scenarios.
- The first shows its estimates under nations' current and announced policies at the time, which bring warming well in excess of the targets.
- The second two are pathways for keeping the very ambitious 1.5 °C target in sight to varying degrees by reaching net-zero emissions in 3-5 decades (but it's complicated and you can read more about them here).
Why it matters: Keeping the Paris targets in sight requires huge changes this decade. The chart shows greatly accelerated renewables deployment, a steep drop in coal use and other big shifts.
- IEA's hardly alone in the long-term scenario business and any multidecade look-ahead is stuffed with uncertainties.
- But what's common among scenarios for holding warming significantly in check is a rapid shift away from fossil fuels.
Go deeper: World must sharply cut emissions by 2030 to meet Paris climate goals
