Study: There's no meaningful relationship between party control and domestic oil output
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
There's no doubt that President Trump and Joe Biden have hugely different energy policies, but the effect of a Biden win on U.S. oil production is less certain — at least in the near- and medium-term.
Driving the news: According to a Rystad Energy note published last week, there's no meaningful relationship between party control and domestic output, which is historically far more influenced by other forces.
The big question: How much will Biden's agenda, if he wins, affect how much U.S. output bounces back from the pandemic-fueled decline from record level production before the outbreak?
- Biden is vowing to end new oil-and-gas leasing on federal lands and waters, impose new emissions regulations, boost EV deployment and more.
- But he has not called for a ban on fracking that would block development on private lands at the heart of the (now stalled) U.S. boom.
What they're saying: "A potential fracking ban on federal acreage would hardly have any impact on nationwide oil and gas output in the medium term, given the already existing depth of low-cost inventory and activity migration," Rystad notes.
Go deeper: The oil stakes of Trump vs. Biden
