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Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at March For TPS Justice rally. Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images

Democrats' efforts to craft climate and energy policy heading into the 2020 elections are very fluid, creating space for new ideas and the risk of chaos that leaves them lacking a clear agenda.

Why it matters: Political windows for big emissions policies open rarely, and the early efforts to craft an agenda follow major scientific findings on the dangers of unchecked warming.

The big picture: There are several forces behind this open landscape, including...

  • There's pent-up interest among House Democrats, but leadership is not necessarily in-step with the insurgent progressives. Speaker Nancy Pelosi's lukewarm response to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's Green New Deal (GND) demonstrates that tension.
  • The big Democratic primary field lacks a clear front-runner, so in effect there will be a bunch of boutique policy shops operating separately that will seek to create ideas that stand out.
  • There's a new set of policy think tanks and advocacy groups backing the party's insurgent left flank.

Where it stands: With Washington largely stuck until at least after the 2020 election, there are lots of wonky efforts to shape policies that would be ready for launch if...

  • Democrats regain the White House and the Senate (but even then, Senate rules create massive hurdles).
  • The stars somehow align for a climate deal that can attract a small but critical mass of Senate Republicans.

What we're hearing: Advice is flying in from all angles...

1. Joseph Aldy, a former Obama aide now at Harvard, states in The Conversation that the 2009 stimulus — the big green investment vehicle of its time — holds lessons for the GND.

2. Ramez Naam writes a lengthy piece for TechCrunch that looks at what Democrats could push without a filibuster-proof majority (which they're highly unlikely to have). Killing the filibuster would open more options but the appetite is highly uncertain.

3. Martin Wolf explains in the Financial Times why a carbon tax, which lots of economists like, won't be nearly enough.

  • Wolf sees space for linking it to some ideas in the GND, which he also finds incomplete. "The Green New Deal recognises the need for regulatory intervention and infrastructure investment. Unfortunately, it places no weight on incentives at all," Wolf writes.
  • Quick take: Expect to hear more of this discussion. While it's true that taxes have buy-in from a handful of Republicans, a carbon price would probably have to be extremely high — untenably high — to yield very steep emissions cuts.
  • As the UN science panel's big report last year noted, "While an explicit carbon pricing mechanism is central to prompt mitigation scenarios compatible with 1.5°C pathways, a complementary mix of stringent policies is required."
  • But the politics here are daunting, because conservatives pushing carbon taxes see them largely replacing regulations and mandates.

Go deeper

Updated 3 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Omicron dashboard

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

  1. Health: CDC director says number of U.S. Omicron cases "likely to rise" — Two years of COVID-19 — Prior coronavirus infections may not protect well against Omicron.
  2. Vaccines: Data demonstrates most-vaccinated counties less vulnerable to worst of COVID — Omicron adds urgency to vaccinating world — Omicron fuels the case for COVID boosters.
  3. Politics: Nevada to impose insurance surcharge on unvaccinated state workers — New Jersey GOP lawmakers defy statehouse COVID policy — Oklahoma sues Biden administration over Pentagon vaccine mandate.
  4. World: Vaccine mandates lose steam in the U.S. while Europe doubles downWHO: Delta health measures help fight Omicron — COVID cases surge in South Africa in sign Omicron wave is coming.
  5. Variant tracker: Where different strains are spreading.

Vulnerable Democrats: Less Trump talk

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Vulnerable House Democrats are convinced they need to talk less about the man who helped them get elected: President Trump.

Why it matters: Democrats are privately concerned nationalizing the 2022 mid-terms with emotionally-charged issues — from Critical Race Theory to Donald Trump's role in the Jan. 6 insurrection — will hamstring their ability to sell the local benefits of President Biden's Build Back Better agenda.

Updated 4 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Bipartisan tributes flood in for "giant of the Senate" Bob Dole

Then-Vice President Joe Biden and former Sen. Bob Dole at an event put on by the World Food Program at which he was awarded the first “McGovern-Dole Leadership Award” in December 2013. Photo: Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call

Republican and Democratic politicians, including former Senate colleagues, are sharing condolences and memories commemorating the life of Bob Dole, who passed away at 98 on Sunday morning.

The big picture: Dole, the Republican presidential nominee in 1996, was the longest-serving Republican leader in the Senate until 2018, when current Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell surpassed his record.