Reproduced from NOAA; Chart: Axios Visuals

2020 is certain to be among the warmest years in modern temperature records that date back to the late 1800s, and stands a very good chance of beating 2016 to top the list, per the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Why it matters: The recent estimate (which I learned about in this Washington Post piece by former Axios colleague Andrew Freedman) shows the ongoing march of global warming, even as policymakers are consumed with responding to COVID-19.

What they found: "Based on current anomalies and historical global annual temperature readings, it appears that it is virtually certain that 2020 will be a top-10 year," said NOAA, which also released this comparison to other years.

  • They see a nearly 75% chance that it will be the warmest on record, and a nearly 100% chance of a top-5 ranking.

The intrigue: "This is somewhat unexpected, since there is no declared El Niño event in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which tends to provide a natural boost to global temperatures that are already elevated due to the human-caused buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere," Freedman writes of the 75% chance.

Go deeper: Why climate change is the easiest news to fake

Go deeper

Microphones will be muted during parts of Thursday's presidential debate

The Commission on Presidential Debates adopted new rules on Monday to mute microphones to allow President Trump and Joe Biden two minutes of uninterrupted time per segment during Thursday night's debate, AP reports.

Why it matters: In the September debate, Trump interrupted Biden 71 times, compared with Biden's 22 interruptions of Trump.

Updated 18 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

  1. Politics: Trump says if Biden's elected, "he'll listen to the scientists"Trump calls Fauci a "disaster" on campaign call.
  2. Health: Coronavirus hospitalizations are on the rise — 8 states set single-day coronavirus case records last week.
  3. States: Wisconsin judge reimposes capacity limit on indoor venues.
  4. Media: Trump attacks CNN as "dumb b*stards" for continuing to cover pandemic.
  5. Business: Consumer confidence surveys show Americans are getting nervousHow China's economy bounced back from coronavirus.
  6. Sports: We've entered the era of limited fan attendance.
  7. Education: Why education technology can’t save remote learning.

Supreme Court denies Pennsylvania GOP request to limit mail-in voting

Protesters outside Supreme Court. Photo: Daniel Slim/AFP via Getty Images

The Supreme Court on Monday denied a request from Pennsylvania's Republican Party to shorten the deadlines for mail-in ballots in the state. Thanks to the court's 4-4 deadlock, ballots can be counted for several days after Election Day.

Why it matters: It's a major win for Democrats that could decide the fate of thousands of ballots in a crucial swing state that President Trump won in 2016. The court's decision may signal how it would deal with similar election-related litigation in other states.