Roughly two-thirds of buses worldwide will be electrified by 2040, according to the latest research from BloombergNEF, while sales of electric cars and light-duty commercial vehicles are on track to be more than 50% by then too.
What they’re saying: Colin McKerracher, head of advanced transport for BNEF, says in a statement: "We see a real possibility that global sales of conventional passenger cars have already passed their peak."
Yes, but: BNEF tends to be on the more aggressive side with its forecasts. This one also makes some assumptions that are uncertain with President Trump in office and Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress.
- The forecasts assume a federal subsidy remains intact and that California retains its legal right to issue stricter standards, which Trump is attempting to do away with while rolling back federal efficiency standards (BNEF doesn’t assume those standards are met).
The big picture: China is dominating in electric cars — like it is in nearly all energy technologies. “China's electric car market is growing much faster than electric vehicle sales in Europe, the United States, Japan and the rest of the world combined,” Jack Barkenbus, a visiting scholar at Vanderbilt University, writes in The Conversation.