The future of the OPEC-Russia alliance

What to watch: I caught up in Houston with Helima Croft, a top analyst with RBC Capital Markets, who notes that while responding to the U.S. shale surge has helped bring OPEC and Russia together, the strategic implications are deeper.

• A key relationship to follow is what she calls the good rapport between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman. Croft says:

"I look at the Russia-Saudi partnership and say, it’s becoming increasingly thicker than oil, and so I think it will be durable in terms of the market management and coordination going forward."“That, to me, is the bilateral partnership that will shape not only oil policy, but a whole host of strategic issues in the Middle East.”

Be smart: Croft says a key element is the "deep commercial relationship" developing, noting Aramco's interest in taking part in Novatek's Arctic LNG-2 project and other ties. She believes the Saudis may see an opportunity to show Russia that "potentially you should think of the Saudis as a better friend for you in the region" than Iran:

“I think there is a bit of soft power diplomacy that the Saudis are using as well with the Russians.”