Jun 28, 2017
Expert Voices

Negotiate or else

Our Expert Voices conversation on North Korea

How does the threat posed by North Korea end? There are many "hard landing" scenarios. War. Regime collapse. A premature exit by Kim Jong Un that leads to a military junta or another family member taking over. There aren't many "soft landings" except for maybe the "China model," a process where the North liberalizes its economy like China did in the late 1970s and slowly becomes a more responsible, if not particularly appealing, country. The problem with all these scenarios is the nuclear weapons remain — or worse — they are used.

The Lesson of Nuclear History: Use Diplomacy. During the nuclear age, dozens of countries started down the path to nuclear weapons but reversed course. And there are cases where countries that acquired or inherited nuclear weapons gave them up outright. Often, that happy result was accomplished not through war but diplomacy – agreements that stopped or rolled back a nuclear weapons program.

But we can't negotiate with a murderous, evil regime, right? Well actually, we do it all the time, and thank God, because it has protected our national security. Nuclear agreements with the gulag building Soviet Union? Yep. How about the terror supporting, Israel hating Colonel Gaddafi in Libya? Check. Talking to your adversary is not a reward; it's how you protect yourself and your interests. When the North Koreans are at the table they are better behaved, the danger of war through miscalculation and misperception declines, and with an agreement, you can freeze or even roll back that nuclear program.

Bottom line: No negotiation? Well, you better start preparing for that hard landing.

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