With summer driving season here, let's revisit two big questions: why isn't the global oil crisis even worse, and how long until economic damage from the Iran war gets even more acute?

Why it matters: There's persistent risk of much higher prices and expanding shortages.

The big picture: Brent crude futures are under $100 per barrel despite the throttling of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a fifth of the global oil trade.

• That's well below the high of around $120 they briefly hit in March and April, even as the war deprives the market of ever more oil.
• And prices for physical barrels, notably "dated Brent," are also well below the highs they hit earlier in the conflict.

How it works: Overlapping forces have eased the futures and physical markets, including...

🛏️ Global oil supply was well above demand before the war, and that soft pre-war market is cushioning the blow now.

• "Those large inventories have meant that the world has so far mostly avoided physical oil and product shortages," analysts with investment firm Macquarie said in a note yesterday.

🇨🇳 China had built up massive stockpiles and has lowered its crude imports.

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia has increased oil flows through its east-west pipeline that bypasses the strait, and the United Arab Emirates has also increased pipeline transit.

🤫 A limited number of ships are quietly getting through the strait.

📉 Refineries in Asia "preemptively" started processing less crude when the conflict started — meaning less oil was being used — even though shipments from the Middle East were still arriving, research and consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group points out in a note.

🔓 The U.S. has provided oil from strategic reserves and boosted exports, and other countries are also taking part in releases coordinated by the International Energy Agency.

📝 Many governments are implementing fuel savings measures like remote work, and high prices are also discouraging some travel already.

💬 President Trump's comments throughout the conflict, including recent suggestions a deal is close, help "jawbone" down futures prices.

Reality check: These are band-aids until the strait truly opens, and Middle East countries that lowered production can revive it.

• As of mid-May, cumulative supply losses were north of 1 billion barrels, per the International Energy Agency.

"Every day the Strait of Hormuz is shut in, 11 million to 14 million bpd [barrels per day] of oil fails to make it to market, and barrels are taken out of storage someplace else to compensate," Robert Yawger of the investment firm Mizuho Securities USA said in a note yesterday.

What we're watching: Markets are not perfectly transparent on changes in supply or consumption.

• But educated guesses on what's next are possible, and some of them look bleak.
• Macquarie estimates that the market will be "OK" for another month or two.

The bottom line: If the strait stays largely closed, eventually supply and demand will have to rebalance in the hardest way possible — via prices so high and supplies scarce enough that consumption must fall greatly.

• "[I]f the Strait is still closed on Labor Day, expect front-month Brent prices of $130 to $150. If the war continues into 2027, prices of ~$200 may be needed to balance supply and demand," Macquarie's note states.

President Trump plans to announce nearly $700 million in new federal support for coal-fired power and coal exports later today, Bloomberg first reported and the White House confirmed to Axios.

Why it matters: Trump officials are looking to revive the electricity source that has long been declining in the U.S., and coal production has also been mostly falling for almost two decades.

Driving the news: He's slated to announce support with authorities under the Cold War-era Defense Production Act.

• It gives presidents powers to try to bolster private industrial production deemed vital to U.S. security.

Catch up quick: Trump officials are moving on several fronts to try to preserve coal, once the dominant U.S. power source that's now 16% of the country's supply.

• For instance, the Environmental Protection Agency has been scaling back various pollution rules, while the Energy Department — claiming grid reliability needs — has been requiring some plants to keep running beyond scheduled shutdown dates.

The other side: Margie Alt, director of the Climate Action Campaign, called the expected announcement a "Polluters First Agenda."

• "Every dollar spent bailing out these aging, inefficient relics will get passed straight to consumers, meaning even higher bills, guaranteed, every single time," she said in a statement.

What's next: Trump has scheduled the announcement for 3 p.m. ET in the Oval Office, according to the White House.

▶️ Blackrock-backed Delfin Midstream Inc. announced a $5 billion final investment decision to build a floating gas liquefaction and export facility off Louisiana's coast.

• Why it matters: It will be the country's first offshore LNG site and "will have the largest liquefaction capacity of any floating project globally," the company said.

🏭 Canada-based Transalta, a major power producer, is buying two gas-fired peaking plants near Denver owned by subsidiaries of private equity giant Blackstone.

• Why it matters: Of course there's a data center angle! The gas plants will provide a long-term cash flow that can be plowed into other "attractive growth opportunities," including data centers in Alberta, the announcement yesterday states. Investor deck ... Reuters coverage.

⛏️ Terra AI, a startup using AI to improve subsurface mineral analysis, raised $20 million in Series A funding led by Khosla Ventures, with backing from mining giant BHP.

• Why it matters: Investors are pouring money into next-gen mining tech and domestic projects to meet surging demand for critical minerals. Go deeper via Axios Pro Deals

👀 Backers of distributed energy provider Innio raised $2.43 billion in the company's IPO, it announced last night.

• Why it matters: The maker of reciprocating gas engines is the latest to see growing opportunities in the data center market. It's expected to start trading on Nasdaq today.

A Rhode Island-based startup is advancing testing of a 12-passenger "electric seaglider" as regulators develop certification rules for a new class of maritime transportation.

Why it matters: Regent Craft aims to launch its Viceroy Seaglider as a faster, cleaner alternative to congested highways and regional air service.

How it works: The ship — it's classified as a marine vehicle and governed by the Coast Guard, not the FAA — operates in three modes: float, foil and fly.

• At the dock, passengers board like any other boat.
• As it moves out into the crowded harbor or inland waterway, it rises up on hydrofoils to navigate choppy waters at speeds between 25-40 miles per hour.

Once in open water — about a mile or so offshore — it can lift off and fly up to 180 miles an hour on a cushion of air about 30 feet above the water.

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