National

Iran has informed the International Atomic Energy Agency that it is withdrawing the designation of several senior UN inspectors who were working in the country, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said on Saturday. 

Why it matters: The decision is a significant escalation by Iran that could hamper the UN nuclear watchdog's ability to monitor Tehran's nuclear program.

What they're saying: "With today's decision, Iran has effectively removed about one-third of the core group of the Agency's most experienced inspectors designated for Iran," Grossi said in a statement.

"This measure, while formally permitted by the NPT Safeguards Agreement, has been exercised by Iran in a manner that affects in a direct and severe way the ability of the IAEA to conduct effectively its inspections in Iran. I strongly condemn this disproportionate and unprecedented unilateral measure," he added. 

Grossi said Iran's decision follows a recent withdrawal of the designation of another experienced agency inspector for Iran.

He called on the Iranian government to reconsider its decision "and to return to a path of cooperation with the Agency."

Driving the news: The U.S. and more than 60 other countries this week expressed concern over “Iran's lack of cooperation on NPT Safeguards Agreement,” including by not providing “technically credible explanations for the presence of uranium particles of anthropogenic origin at three undeclared locations in Iran.”

The U.S. and its E3 allies — the U.K., France and Germany — also condemned Iran's refusal to answer the UN nuclear watchdog's questions regarding its undeclared nuclear activities. 

The Western powers threatened to put forth another resolution at the IAEA demanding action. 

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said the move was a response to the U.S., U.K., France and Germany's "misuse" of the agency's Board of Governors "for their own political purposes."

Kanaani said Iran had already warned against the consequences of political misuse of the IAEA.

The big picture: Iran's move comes amid an effort to implement a set of understandings with the U.S. on a prisoner swap deal and de-escalation in its nuclear program and in the region.

Secretary of State Tony Blinken earlier this month signed a waiver to allow banks to transfer $6 billion in frozen Iranian funds without the fear of being harmed by U.S. sanctions — a move the State Department described as "critical" for a prisoner swap deal between the U.S. and Iran to move forward.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with the Iranian Foreign Ministry statement. 

IAEA: Iran expels several inspectors in "unprecedented" move

It's a significant escalation by Iran that could hamper the UN nuclear watchdog's ability to monitor Tehran's nuclear program.

The flag of Iran is seen in front of the International Atomic Energy Agency headquarters in Vienna. Photo: Michael Gruber/Getty Images

Nuclear program of Iran

Iran

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

The U.S. said on Friday it was issuing a new round of sanctions targeting Iranian individuals and entities that played a role in the "violent suppression" of protests that rocked the country following the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody a year ago. 

Driving the news: The death of Amini, who died on Sept. 16, 2022, after being detained by the country's morality police for allegedly violating a religious law requiring women to wear headscarves, prompted mass calls for greater rights and freedoms for women in Iran. 

Iranian security services responded with a violent crackdown, including making thousands of arrests and shutting down the internet. Hundreds were killed in the protests, according to rights groups. 

Details: The Treasury Department announced Friday that it was designating 29 individuals and entities, including 18 members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Law Enforcement Forces (LEF).

Individuals connected to the Iranian government's internet blockade and human rights abuses were also sanctioned, Treasury said. 

The new sanctions are the 13th round issued by the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) in connection to the protests over Amini's death, per the department. 

The State Department will concurrently impose visa restrictions on 13 Iranians believed to be involved in the "detention or killing of peaceful protestors or inhibiting their rights to freedom of expression or assembly."

What they're saying: "Mahsa's story did not end with her brutal death," President Biden said in a statement Friday commemorating the anniversary.

"She inspired a historic movement—Woman, Life, Freedom—that has impacted Iran and influenced people across the globe who are tirelessly advocating for gender equality and respect for their human rights, " President Biden said in a statement Friday," he added.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a video statement: "As the epitaph on Ms. Amini's grave reads, 'Her name will become a symbol.' Indeed, it has. And it will always be a reminder of the courage of the Iranian people."

State of play: The protests, which gradually dwindled in size amid the crackdown, represented the largest demonstration against the Iranian government in years.

"In anticipation of the anniversary of Mahsa Amini's death, Iranian authorities have proactively arrested activists in an effort to dissuade others from resuming anti-government protests," the Treasury Department noted.

This included the arrests of 12 female rights activists, who were accused of planning to incite "chaos and vandalism" on the upcoming anniversary, the New York Times reported.

In recent days, police have been more present on the streets of Tehran, conducting snap checkpoints, and internet access has been disrupted, AP reported.

U.S. issues new Iran sanctions on anniversary of Mahsa Amini's death

"Mahsa's story did not end with her brutal death," President Biden said in a statement.

signs at a protest at the Iranian consulate on October 31, 2022 in İstanbul,

Signs at a protest over Mahsa Amini's death, at the Iranian consulate in Oct. 2022 in İstanbul. Photo: Omer Kuscu/ dia images via Getty Images

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

The U.S. and Bahrain are expected to sign a strategic security and economic agreement this week that will upgrade the U.S. security commitment to the Gulf kingdom, according to three sources briefed on the issue.

Why it matters: Bahrain is a key U.S. partner in the Gulf. The Navy's 5th Fleet is headquartered on a large U.S. naval base there. In 2002, the Gulf kingdom became a major non-NATO ally of the U.S. — an important symbolic designation but one that does not include any security commitments.

Bahrain sees Iran, located less than 100 miles away on the other side of the Gulf, as a threat.

Tehran for years has claimed Bahrain as one of its provinces. The Bahraini government has rejected the claims and accused Iran of fueling unrest among the kingdom's Shiite population.

Driving the news: Bahraini Crown Prince and Prime Minister Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa is expected to sign the agreement during a visit to Washington this week, the sources said. 

He is also expected to meet Secretary of State Tony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and national security adviser Jake Sullivan, according to one source.

Brett McGurk, Biden's senior Middle East adviser, visited Bahrain last week and met with the crown prince and other Bahraini officials. 

Details: The agreement includes a commitment to consult and provide assistance if Bahrain faces an imminent security threat, two sources said.

Another source familiar with the agreement said it will be legally binding. It will include a security commitment, and outline an economic partnership between the U.S. and Bahrain as well as cooperation around trusted technologies. 

The agreement, however, does not include a NATO-style Article 5 commitment, which would have required the U.S. to see any attack on Bahrain as an attack on America.

The White House and the Bahraini Embassy declined to comment.

Behind the scenes: The sources said the U.S.-Bahrain strategic agreement has been in the works for more than a year.

The Biden administration wanted to use the agreement as a framework for similar agreements with other countries in the region, the sources said.

According to one source, McGurk discussed the final details of the agreement during his trip to Manama last week.

The big picture: The agreement with Bahrain is part of a broader push by the Biden administration to strengthen ties with Gulf countries.

On Saturday, Biden announced together with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and India a major international infrastructure project to connect India, the Middle East and Europe with a network of railways and shipping lines.

The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed Bin Salman said in his speech at the launching of the project that the kingdom will invest $20 billion in Biden's Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, which will also include the railway and shipping project.

The Biden administration's efforts to get a normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel got another boost over the weekend when a delegation of the Israeli Foreign Ministry and Antiquities Authority arrived in Riyadh to participate in the UNESCO World Heritage Committee meeting. It was the first time an Israeli government delegation visited Saudi Arabia officially and publicly.

What to watch: The Biden administration is holding talks with Saudi Arabia on a mega-deal that could also include a U.S.-Saudi Arabia defense treaty.

Saudi officials want the agreement to be stronger and to include more commitments from the U.S., as Axios has previously reported. That would likely require Senate approval.

Scoop: U.S. and Bahrain to sign strategic security and economic agreement

It will upgrade the U.S. security commitment to Bahrain, which sees Iran as a threat.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (L) meets with Bahrain's Crown Prince and Prime Minister, Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, at the State Department in Washington, DC,

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Bahrain's Crown Prince and Prime Minister Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, at the State Department in Washington, D.C., on March 2, 2022. Photo: Elizabeth Franz/AFP via Getty Images

Bahrain

Iran has released five Americans from prison and placed them on house arrest, the White House confirmed Thursday, saying that "negotiations for their eventual release remain ongoing and are delicate."

The big picture: Those placed on house arrest include two unidentified Americans and Siamak Namazi, Morad Tahbaz and Emad Shargi, who have each spent several years in an Iranian prison.

Namazi, Tahbaz, Shargi and one of the unidentified Americans were released from Iran's Evin prison and are expected to be held at a hotel under guard by Iranian officials under house arrest, according to Jared Genser, Namazi's lawyer. 

It's unclear whether the fifth is also being held with the others. 

Catch up quick: The State Department has declared three of the Iranian Americans — Namazi, Shargi and Tahbaz — wrongfully detained.

Namazi, a businessman, has been detained in Iran since 2016 after he was convicted of espionage-related charges, per Reuters.

Tahbaz, an environmentalist who is also a British citizen, was sentenced to 10 years in prison in 2018.

Shargi was also sentenced to 10 years in 2020 on espionage charges.

What they're saying: National Security Council Spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement on Thursday that negotiations for their eventual release are "delicate" and ongoing. 

"While this is an encouraging step, these U.S. citizens - Siamak Namazi, Morad Tahbaz, Emad Shargi, and two Americans who at this time wish to remain private - should have never been detained in the first place," Watson said.

Babak Namazi, Siamak's brother, also welcomed the news in a statement.

"We are grateful that Siamak and the other Americans in Iran are out of Evin Prison and under house arrest," he said. "While this is a positive change, we will not rest until Siamak and others are back home."

Between the lines: It's unclear if the move to house release signals Iran may be close to releasing the Americans. 

Iranian state media for months has reported that a U.S.-Iran prisoner swap may soon be possible, but the Biden administration said Thursday it could not provide details about "efforts to secure their freedom."

The big picture: The New York Times reported Thursday that the U.S. and Iran have reached an agreement for the release of the five Americans in exchange for several Iranians in prison for violating sanctions on Iran.

As part of the deal, per the Times, the U.S. will transfer nearly $6 billion of Iranian assets held in South Korea into an account in the central bank of Qatar. 

The account will be controlled by Qatar, and Iran will only be able to access the funds to pay for humanitarian aid like medicine and food, according to the Times, which cited several people familiar with the deal.

The Korea Economic Daily also reported on Tuesday that South Korea and the U.S. are discussing ways to release $7 billion in Iranian funds held in South Korea. The funds are a South Korean debt for oil imports from Iran.

Go deeper: Scoop: Bibi wants security agreement from Biden on deterring Iran as part of mega Saudi deal

Scoop: Bibi wants security agreement from Biden on deterring Iran as part of mega Saudi deal

Iran moves 5 imprisoned Americans to house arrest

The U.S. has said the five were "unjustly detained" by Iran.

Photo: Christopher Pike/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to get a security agreement with the U.S. focused on deterring Iran in the context of the mega-deal the Biden administration is trying to reach with Saudi Arabia and Israel, four Israeli and U.S. officials told Axios.

Why it matters: A formal agreement, which would likely have to be approved by Congress, would give stronger U.S. security guarantees to Israel at a time when Iran continues to advance its nuclear program. The chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told Congress the Iranians could build a nuclear device within five months if they decided to do so. 

Driving the news: Netanyahu brought up the idea for a U.S.-Israeli security agreement in passing during his last phone call with President Biden in July, three Israeli and U.S. officials told Axios. 

Netanyahu told Biden he wants to send his confidant and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer to Washington to present a proposal in detail, the officials said. Dermer is the driving force behind the idea and he started pushing it shortly after Netanyahu assumed office seven months ago, a senior Israeli official told Axios. 

The exact parameters of Neyanyahu's proposed agreement are not known but Israeli officials say it is meant to focus on U.S. security guarantees around a possible military nuclear threat from Iran.

Netanyahu's office said it won't comment on private diplomatic conversations. 

A National Security Council spokesperson did not respond to specific questions about Netanyahu's idea, but said the administration continues its "support for full normalization with Israel" and "to talk to our regional partners [in the Middle East] about how more progress can be made."

"Normalization and the details of any agreement reached have to be decided by two sovereign states," the spokesperson added.

The big picture: Netanyahu sees a U.S.-Israeli security agreement as something that could be signed in the context of the broader deal the U.S. is trying to reach with Saudi Arabia that would also include a Saudi-Israel normalization agreement, Israeli officials said.

As part of the talks around the deal, the Biden administration and Saudi officials are discussing a possible security agreement that would give U.S. security guarantees to the kingdom.

The Saudis wanted an agreement that would include a NATO-style Article 5 commitment in which the U.S. would treat any attack against Saudi Arabia like an attack against the U.S. 

The Biden administration didn't accept this request but did agree to discuss what some U.S. officials are calling an "article 4.5" commitment — a security guarantee that would fall short of the Saudi expectations but would still be significant, a U.S. official said.

Netanyahu and Dermer want something similar and think that in a broader context of a U.S.-Saudi-Israel deal, such a security agreement will be easier to get, Israeli officials said.

Flashback: In 2019, Netanyahu and Dermer, who was then the Israeli ambassador to Washington tried to get a similar agreement from then-President Trump.

Many senior officials in the Israeli security establishment were opposed to the idea, saying such an agreement would limit the IDF's freedom of operation.

A few days before the September 2019 Israeli elections, Trump said on social media that he discussed with Netanyahu the possibility of moving forward with a mutual defense treaty.

At the time, this appeared to be an effort by Trump to help Netanyahu ahead of the Israeli elections. Netanyahu didn't win the elections and the idea largely died until recently. 

Between the lines: While upgrading the already strong U.S.-Israeli security relationship, such an agreement could give more leverage to the U.S. when it comes to influencing Israeli military operations.

At a conference in Washington in November 2019, Dermer said a defense treaty with the U.S. would provide Israel "with an additional layer of deterrence against the most extreme threats that Israel faces."

He said at the time that he envisioned a "narrow treaty" that would serve the defense needs of both sides but also wouldn't tie Israel's hands.

What to watch: U.S. officials have previously said the administration wants to try to complete its diplomatic initiative with Saudi Arabia before the presidential election campaign consumes Biden's agenda, as Axios reported earlier this year.

Scoop: Bibi wants security agreement from Biden as part of mega Saudi deal

The agreement would be focused on deterring Iran, officials say.

Biden and Netanyahu at a press conference in Jerusalem in March 2016. Photo: Debbie Hill/AFP via Getty Images

Benjamin Netanyahu

Axios Explains: Israel-Hamas war

Joe Biden

U.S. envoy for Iran Rob Malley told Axios on Thursday he went on leave several weeks ago because of an investigation that has affected his security clearance. 

Why it matters: Malley was a key player in the Biden administration's efforts to try and return to the 2015 nuclear deal and in crafting the administration’s Iran policy. 

Driving the news: The State Department first acknowledged that Malley was on leave in May when he didn't participate in a classified Senate briefing on Iran. The State Department didn't give the reasons, but said at the time that Malley was "still very much engaged on this issue."

Malley told Axios Thursday that he has "been informed that my security clearance is under review. I have not been provided any further information, but I expect the investigation to be resolved favorably and soon. In the meantime, I am on leave." 

State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told Axios that "Rob Malley is on leave and Abram Paley is serving as acting Special Envoy and leading the department’s work in this area."

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

CNN reported that Malley’s clearance was suspended amid a State Department diplomatic security investigation into the possible mishandling of classified information.

U.S. special envoy for Iran Rob Malley on leave, says security clearance "under review"

Rob Malley, a key player in the Biden admin's efforts to try and return to the 2015 nuclear deal, is currently on leave.

Robert Malley, Biden administration special envoy for Iran, 

Robert Malley, the Biden administration's special envoy for Iran. Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan in a tough call with his Israeli counterpart last week expressed concern that Israel is leaking information to the press about indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran, three U.S. and Israeli officials told Axios. 

Why it matters: Recent press reports by Axios and other media outlets about the indirect talks, which have been confirmed by Iran but not officially by the Biden administration, generated criticism among congressional Republicans, who are demanding the Biden administration seek congressional review for any agreement with Iran.

The talks are aimed at reaching understandings on Iran's nuclear program and regional de-escalation. 

Catch up quick: Israeli national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi and Ron Dermer, Israel's minister for strategic affairs, met Sullivan at the White House in early June and were briefed in detail about the indirect talks, two Israeli officials said.

"We are trying to do what we can to get on the same page with the U.S. and we will continue to try and do that," Dermer said at an American Jewish Committee conference in Tel Aviv shortly after the meeting, adding the discussions at the White House were "open, frank and candid."

Behind the scenes: Most press reports about the talks began to surface in June, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Israeli lawmakers in a classified Knesset hearing that the U.S. was working on a “mini-agreement” with Iran. 

In his call with Hanegbi last week, Sullivan mentioned frustrations around Netanyahu's remarks, according to a senior Israeli official. 

Hanegbi told Sullivan that Netanyahu must speak about the talks with Israeli lawmakers because he is being criticized by the opposition, according to an Israeli official. Henegbi stressed, however, that the prime minister is limiting his public remarks about the issue as much as possible, the Israeli official said.

Hanegbi also stressed to Sullivan that under guidance from Netanyahu, he gave several interviews in recent weeks in which he emphasized coordination with the Biden administration on Iran is better than ever.

A spokesperson for Netanyahu did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment.

Israel officially objects to any new deal with Iran, but Netanyahu has not campaigned against any possible understandings between Tehran and Washington as he did during the negotiations of the 2015 nuclear deal.

Sullivan claimed during the call that a lot of the information in the press was inaccurate and didn’t reflect what was being discussed in the indirect talks with Iran, the U.S. official said. It's unclear what exactly in the reports the Biden administration sees as inaccurate.

The White House National Security Council declined to comment. 

One U.S. official said the feeling at the White House was that Israel was behind the leaks and was also feeding Iran hawks in Congress with the same information directly and indirectly. 

The big picture: The complaint about the alleged Israeli leaks was only one of the grievances Sullivan raised, the U.S. and Israeli officials said.

A senior Israeli official told Axios the call was friendly but said Sullivan also expressed deep concern about the Israeli government's decisions regarding the expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank and violent attacks by Israeli settlers against Palestinian civilians.

Sullivan’s concerns about the situation in the West Bank were included in the White House readout of the call, but his complaint about the alleged leaks on Iran was not mentioned in the statement.

State of play: It is unclear whether Iran and the U.S. are close to agreeing on any understandings about regional de-escalation and Iran's nuclear program. 

The parties are also discussing separately a possible prisoner exchange deal that could take place in the context of these understandings, as Axios has previously reported.

Scoop: White House expressed concern that Israel is leaking info on indirect Iran talks

Jake Sullivan raised his frustrations in a call with his Israeli counterpart.

U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan (left) meets with his Israeli counterpart, Tzachi Hanegbi, in Jerusalem on Jan. 19. Photo: Israeli Government Press Office/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Jake Sullivan

Israel told the Russian government it is highly concerned about its growing military cooperation with Iran in the war in Ukraine and the possibility it will provide Tehran with advanced weapon systems, Netanyahu told Israeli lawmakers in a closed-door hearing on Tuesday, according to three lawmakers who attended the meeting.

Why it matters: Israel’s relations with Moscow have become a very sensitive issue since Russia's invasion began. Netanyahu’s comments to the lawmakers were a rare window into the Israeli-Russian dialogue.

The big picture: Since the Russian invasion, Israel has been under pressure from the U.S. and other Western countries to do more to support Ukraine, including with military assistance.

The previous Israeli government took a very careful approach to the war, hoping not to create tension with Russia and harm Israeli security interests in Syria.

Israel still refuses to give offensive weapon systems to Ukraine, but the growing Iranian military assistance to Russia has slowly pushed Israel to do more to help Kyiv.

Behind the scenes: During a hearing of the Knesset Foreign Relations and Security Committee on Tuesday, Netanyahu said there is a quiet dialogue with the Russian government, which includes an “open and frank” exchange of views, the lawmakers who attended the hearing said.

Netanyahu said there are complaints on both sides — the Russians have expressed concern about Israeli support to Ukraine and Israel is concerned by Moscow's cooperation with Iran. “We don’t know how the Russians are paying the Iranians for their military assistance," Netanyahu said, according to the lawmakers.

Netanyahu surprised many lawmakers in the room when he praised the policy of the previous government and stressed he will continue implementing it by giving humanitarian and political support to Ukraine but refraining from supplying it with weapons, the lawmakers who spoke to Axios said.

Netanyahu claimed that one of the reasons Israel rejected the requests to supply Ukraine with air and missile defense systems like the Iron Dome was due to concerns the sensitive technology could fall into Russian hands and then be given to Iran, which would be able to reverse engineer it and learn how to overcome it, the lawmakers said.

During the hearing, Netanyahu was asked why he hasn’t traveled to Kyiv to meet Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky. Several lawmakers said Netanyahu tried to joke his way out of the question, saying it’s complicated to take the train. "Biden took the train," one of the lawmakers told him, per the sources in the room. 

The Israeli Prime Minister's Office and the Russian Embassy in Tel Aviv declined to comment.

What they're saying: Ron Dermer, Israel's minister for strategic affairs and Netanyahu’s closest adviser, told the American Jewish Committee conference in Tel Aviv on Monday that the military partnership between Russia and Iran could be dangerous for Israel.

“Our eyes are very much on it. It is not going to be a one-way street in the long term, and our concern is that Russia provides things to Iran to the point it threatens our security — this is something we look at day after day," Dermer said.

Scoop: Bibi says Israel protested Russia's cooperation with Iran

The Israeli PM's comments to lawmakers during a closed-door hearing were a rare window into the Israeli-Russian dialogue.

Netanyahu with Putin in 2019. Photo: Alexander Zemlianichenko/AFP via Getty

Russia

Ukraine

Refugees, asylum-seekers and people in need of international protection displaced

Data: UNHCR; Chart: Simran Parwani/Axios; Note: Chart does not include IDPs. 

Russia's invasion of Ukraine, other conflicts like those in Syria and Sudan, and climate-fueled crises have pushed the number of people displaced by war, persecution, violence, human rights abuses and other events to a record 110 million, the UN refugee agency said in a new report Tuesday.

The big picture: The upward trend of forced displacement comes as humanitarian response plans and budgets remain severely underfunded. The right to asylum is also "under threat" in some places, and a rising number of compounding factors have made it even harder to provide protection to those most in need, according to UNHCR. 

Last year also exposed the unequal treatment of different refugee groups. Nations, especially in Europe, have been lauded for welcoming Ukrainian refugees with open arms, but some of those same countries have also been criticized for closing their borders to displaced people from other places. 

The new UNHCR report is "quite an indictment on the state of our world," UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi told reporters. "We are constantly confronted with emergencies." 

Zoom out: There were 108.4 million forcibly displaced individuals — or one in 74 people worldwide — at the end of 2022, up 19 million compared to 2021. That was the largest year-to-year increase since UNHCR began tracking displacement, the agency said. 

The global total includes 62.5 million internally displaced people, 35.3 million refugees, 5.4 million asylum seekers and 5.2 million others who are in need of international protection, per the report. 

The upward trend has shown no sign of slowing this year. As of May, UNHCR estimated that the number of forcibly displaced people has already climbed to 110 million, largely due to the conflict in Sudan. 

Zoom in: About 52% of refugees and other people in need of international protection came from just three countries: Syria (6.5 million), Ukraine (5.7 million) and Afghanistan (5.7 million). 

Women and children remain disproportionately affected by violence and disasters. The UN estimates 41% of all refugees at the end of last year were children. About 51% were women and girls. 

Data: UNHCR; Note: Includes people with refugee status or who are in refugee-like situations and other people outside their area of origin who have not been reported under other categories, but likely need international protection; Chart: Simran Parwani/Axios

Driving the news: Russia's invasion was the "top driver of displacement" in 2022, with the exodus from Ukraine representing the fastest-growing refugee crisis in Europe since WWII, the UN said.

But protracted conflicts and crises in Syria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Venezuela, and elsewhere also continued to force people from their homes. 

Climate-fueled natural disasters are also increasingly pushing people to flee, says UNHCR spokesperson Kathryn Mahoney. 

"It's clear that the climate crisis ... is driving displacement," Mahoney tells Axios, pointing to places like Pakistan, which suffered deadly floods last year, and Somalia, where a prolonged drought has worsened a hunger crisis. "But it's also making life a lot harder for people who have already been forced to flee." 

More than "70% of the world's refugees and displaced people come from some of the most climate-vulnerable countries," Mahoney notes. 

That is especially worrying as the ultimate goal is for people to return to their home countries "in safety and in dignity," Mahoney adds. "What happens when those places that people come from are no longer habitable?"

People displaced by drought react as Cindy McCain (not seen), World Food Programme (WFP) Executive Director, visits to assess drought conditions at the Ladan internally displaced people (IDP) camp in Dolow

People displaced by drought in Somalia react as World Food Program executive director Cindy McCain visits the Ladan internally displaced people (IDP) camp in Dolow in May 2023. Photo: Ali Elmit/AFP via Getty Images

Context: The majority of displaced people "never cross an international border," the report noted. Internally displaced people represented 58% of all displaced people at the end of 2022.

About 76% of refugees and other people in need of international protection were hosted by low- and middle-income nations, according to the UNHCR report. 

Countries hosting the most included Turkey (3.6 million), Iran (3.4 million), Colombia (2.5 million), Germany (2.1 million) and Pakistan (1.7 million). 

At the same time, there were 2.6 million new asylum claims in 2022, with the U.S. receiving the most, per the report. 

The high number of new claims comes amid what human rights groups describe as a crackdown on asylum worldwide, including in the U.S. and Europe. 

The "fundamental right to seek asylum is under threat in some places, Mahoney says. "The need for asylum is greater than ever, but you have situations where ... expulsions, pushbacks, externalization are threatening the international asylum system and setting really dangerous precedent moving forward." 

What to watch: The 2022 report is worrying, but there is some hope, Mahoney tells Axios. 

The world's "incredible" response to and "solidarity" with Ukrainian refugees, in particular, but also Colombia's response to Venezuelans seeking refuge can be used as models, she says. 

But an effective response will only work if the international community focuses on addressing the root causes of displacement and creates a more equal system — one that values "asylum for all."

"We know what fair, efficient and humane solutions are," Mahoney adds. "We just need to implement them."

Go deeper: Listen to the Axios Today podcast, where host Niala Boodhoo and Laurin-Whitney Gottbrath share why a record number of people are being displaced around the world.

Record 110 million people forcibly displaced worldwide, UN says

The growing figure is "quite an indictment on the state of our world."

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