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Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett tweeted Tuesday that President Biden informed him last month that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will remain on the U.S. terror blacklist. 

Why it matters: Despite earlier signs of some progress, indirect talks to restore the Iran nuclear deal have been stalled for months. Tehran's demand that the U.S. remove the IRGC from Foreign Terrorist Organization list was one of the last major sticking points. 

State of play: During the negotiations, the U.S. proposed removing the IRGC from the FTO list if Iran made a public commitment to de-escalation in the region, Axios' Barak Ravid reported. 

Iran refused the proposal and as time passed, the Biden administration became increasingly concerned about the possible domestic political fallout of a deal with Iran regarding the IRGC, per Ravid. 

Politico reported Tuesday that Biden informed Bennett of his final decision in their April 24 phone call. A readout of the call said the two leaders discussed "shared regional and global security challenges, including the threat posed by Iran and its proxies."

What they're saying: Bennett on Twitter on Tuesday thanked Biden for "this principled decision." 

"I welcome the decision by the US Administration to keep Iran’s IRGC on the Foreign Terrorist Organizations list  — which is where it belongs," he said. 

A National Security Council spokesperson said the NSC does not "disclose the contents of our private diplomatic conversations." 

"We are not negotiating in public and are not going to respond to specific claims about what sanctions we would be prepared to lift as part of a mutual return to full implementation of the JCPOA," the spokesperson added. 

"The President will do what’s in the best interests of U.S. national security."

Israeli PM says Biden told him Iran's IRGC will remain on U.S. terror list

Iran's demand that the U.S. remove the IRGC from the list was a sticking point in efforts to restore the nuclear deal.

Bennett and Biden at the White House on Aug. 27, 2021. Photo:  Sarahbeth Maney-Pool/Getty Images

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and President Biden meet at the White House on Aug. 27, 2021. Photo:  Sarahbeth Maney-Pool/Getty Images

Iran

Israel

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

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Axios from Tel Aviv

Enrique Mora, the EU mediator in the indirect nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran, met with Iranian chief negotiator Ali Bagheri in Tehran on Wednesday in an effort to salvage a possible nuclear deal.

Why it matters: It's Mora’s second trip to Tehran since a “pause” in the Vienna nuclear talks was announced eight weeks ago. 

Mora is making a last-ditch effort to find a way to solve the disagreement over Iran’s demand to remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the U.S. terror blacklist so that the parties can move toward signing a nuclear deal.

The big picture: The Biden administration, its European allies and Israel have expressed concerns that Iran will continue to advance its nuclear program while the talks are stalled.

Driving the news: Mora coordinated his trip with the Biden administration and the E3 — France, the U.K. and Germany.

Biden administration officials said they haven’t given Mora any new U.S. proposals to the Iranians.

The U.S. still refuses to remove the IRGC from the terrorism blacklist unless Iran agrees to give concessions on issues outside its nuclear program, including its regional activity.

A senior U.S. official told me the Biden administration hopes the Iranians would agree to give up on their demand regarding the IRGC and sign the draft deal achieved in Vienna.

Worth noting: Shortly before the meeting between Mora and Bagheri, the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence announced the arrest of two European nationals for “organizing chaos, social disorder and destabilizing society” in the country.

What’s next: Qatari Emir Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani is expected to visit Tehran in the coming days and meet President Ebrahim Raisi to discuss ways to move past the current impasse and reach a deal.

EU mediator in Tehran for last-ditch effort to save Iran nuclear deal

It's Enrique Mora’s second trip to Tehran since a “pause” in the Vienna nuclear talks was announced eight weeks ago.

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Saeed Khatibzadeh holds a press conference in Tehran on May 9. Photo: Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images

Iran deal

Iran and Saudi Arabia resumed official talks in Baghdad last week, despite the ongoing political deadlock in Iraq and Riyadh's crackdown on Shiite opposition.

Why it matters: The talks were put on hold last November pending the formation of a new government in Baghdad. Iran last month also postponed a meeting after Saudi Arabia executed dozens of Shiite dissidents. 

Flashback: Saudi Arabia cut off relations with Iran in January 2016 after Iranian protesters stormed Saudi diplomatic facilities in Tehran over Riyadh’s execution of dissident Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr.

Driving the news: The fifth round of talks between senior Iranian and Saudi security and intelligence officials last Thursday was focused on two key challenges: the normalization of ties and the Saudi-led war in Yemen.

Tehran has pressed for the re-establishment of diplomatic relations and the reopening of embassies. Riyadh wants more practical action first.

State of play: Saudi Arabia agreed to allow Iran to reopen its embassy in Riyadh, but only for activities related to the Jeddah-based Organization for Islamic Cooperation.

The two sides decided to “send a delegation to each country within the next 30 days to discuss the reopening of embassies,” a source familiar with the talks in the region told Amwaj.media.

Saudi Arabia also agreed to reportedly allow 40,000 Iranians to enter the kingdom for the annual hajj pilgrimage in July.

The big picture: The main priority for Saudi Arabia is its war against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. After seven years of fighting, the Houthis are launching attacks as deep as Jeddah in Saudi Arabia.

In early April, the UN announced a two-month ceasefire in Yemen in exchange for seaborne fuel deliveries to the besieged port of Hodeida and selected commercial flights to Sana’a.

During last week's talks, Saudi officials expressed disappointment with Iran’s role in Yemen and stressed that Tehran should be more active in facilitating an extension, sources said.

Iran expressed positivity over the truce but stressed that practical steps need to be taken to move toward sustainable peace.

Between the lines: Saudi Arabia has shifted its regional policies over the past year amid the cooling of ties with the U.S. after the Biden administration came to office.

Iran’s conservative government is keen on showing that it prioritizes relations with neighbors regardless of the state of the 2015 nuclear deal, which remains on life support.

What’s next: Iranian and Saudi officials will reconvene in Baghdad “in the coming weeks." Prior to that session, there will be another lower-level meeting between the parties in Oman.

Iranian state media has asserted that given the “constructive dialogue,” it is possible that a meeting between the foreign ministers will be held.

But, but, but: The current “constructive atmosphere” will to a large extent rely on progress over Yemen, including an extension of the truce and moves toward peace talks.

Mohammad Ali Shabani is the editor of Amwaj.media. 

Inside the talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia

The current “constructive atmosphere” will to a large extent rely on progress over Yemen.

An Iranian flag. Photo: Joe Klamar/AFP via Getty Images

The Biden administration for now is not shutting the door on a possible return to the Iran nuclear deal, despite a weekslong stalemate in the talks.

The big picture: The indirect negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in Vienna were paused six weeks ago with no resumption in sight. 

State of play: The key issue preventing a deal is Iran’s demand that the U.S. remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from the U.S. blacklist of foreign terrorist organizations.

Iranian officials have refused several U.S. proposals on this issue, and the Biden administration has made clear it won’t make such a move unilaterally.

Secretary of State Tony Blinken, during a congressional hearing Tuesday, said it's still possible to come to an understanding about the IRGC that could pave the way for a nuclear deal.

Blinken said the Biden administration could lift the terror designation from the IRGC if Iran takes the necessary steps to justify it. “Iran knows what it would have to do," Blinken said. The U.S. previously demanded Tehran make a public commitment to de-escalation in the region.

Between the lines: Biden administration officials said they think the door should be left open both because Iran might agree to give up on its demands regarding the IRGC and because walking away from the table would put the blame for the failure on the United States.

Don't forget: The Biden administration has previously said the talks won't be open-ended and put forward several unofficial deadlines for a deal, which have all passed.

What they're saying: "We are going to pursue a mutual return to compliance with the JCPOA as long as it remains in our national interest to do so," State Department spokesperson Ned Price said yesterday, referring to the Iran deal, known as the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

What to watch: Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell agreed in a phone call that the pause in the talks is negative, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said yesterday.

He added that Iran believes it would be better to resume meetings in person but didn’t mention where or at what level.

U.S. not shutting door on possible Iran nuclear deal — for now

The indirect negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in Vienna were paused six weeks ago with no resumption in sight.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Photo: Bonnie Cash/AFP via Getty Images

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

The U.S. and Israel will hold a new round of strategic talks this week focusing on Iran's nuclear program and countering its activity in the region, Israeli and U.S. officials said.

Why it matters: The talks will take place amid a deep stalemate in indirect negotiations between the U.S. and Iran over reviving the 2015 nuclear agreement.

The Biden administration has recently started discussing a scenario in which the nuclear deal isn’t revived. Israel is pressing the administration to cooperate on a “Plan B” in case that happens.

Driving the news: Israel’s national security adviser Eyal Hulata will arrive in Washington later this week for meetings with his White House counterpart, Jake Sullivan, U.S. and Israeli officials said.

Hulata will head an interagency delegation for a meeting of the U.S.-Israel strategic working group on Iran.

President Biden spoke on Sunday with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and discussed shared regional and global security challenges, including the threat posed by Iran and its proxies, the White House said.

Bennett discussed with Biden Iran's demand to remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the U.S. Foreign Terrorist Organizations list, the Prime Minister’s Office said.

What they are saying: "I am sure that President Biden, who is a true friend of Israel and cares about its security, will not allow the IRGC to be removed from the list of terrorist organizations," Bennett said in a statement after the call. 

"Israel has clarified its position on the issue: The IRGC is the largest terrorist organization in the world."

Biden and Bennett have formed a personal relationship that enabled both countries to arrive at common positions on difficult matters, the White House wrote in a statement Sunday. 

Background: The U.S. and Israel developed a working group, code-named “Opal” ("Leshem" in Hebrew), in the early days of the Obama administration. It was headed by the national security advisers on both sides.

It was the main venue for strategizing over how to apply pressure on Iran during Obama’s first term, and it became the primary setting to air disagreements about the nuclear deal during his second term.

During Trump's tenure, the forum convened to discuss the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal and to coordinate the "maximum pressure" campaign.

In February, when Benjamin Netanyahu was still prime minister, the Biden administration proposed that the forum reconvene, and the group met in March and April.

When Bennett visited the White House in August, he and Biden agreed to resume the working group. It has convened three times since then.

What’s next: The Prime Minister’s Office said Biden accepted Bennett’s invitation to visit Israel and told him he intends to do it in the coming months. The White House confirmed that in its statement.

U.S. and Israel will hold Iran talks amid stalemate in nuclear negotiations

The U.S. and Iran are still in a stalemate in negotiations over reviving the 2015 nuclear agreement.

President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. Photo: Sarahbeth Maney/The New York Times/Bloomberg via Getty Images

U.S. sanctions key figures in Iran's ballistic missile program

"Iran’s development and proliferation of ballistic missiles continues to pose a serious threat to international security."

A ballistic missile is seen during a military parade in Tehran, Iran on September 22, 2017.

A ballistic missile is seen during a military parade in Tehran, Iran, on Sept. 22, 2017. Photo: Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blinken asked Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and other Israeli officials for their alternative to a nuclear deal with Iran that will limit Tehran's uranium enrichment, a senior State Department official and an Israeli official told me.

Why it matters: After months of indirect negotiations between Iran and the Biden administration, a draft agreement for returning to the 2015 nuclear deal is almost done. 

The last remaining stumbling block is Iran's demand that the Biden administration remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from the Foreign Terrorist Organizations blacklist.

Israel, together with its Arab allies in the region, is against a U.S. return to the nuclear deal.

Behind the scenes: The Israeli and U.S. officials said the Iran issue was at the center of the meeting between Blinken and Bennett on Sunday, but regardless of the disagreement, the discussion wasn’t tense.

Blinken asked Bennett for his alternative to the nuclear deal and how he would stop Iran from reaching nuclear weapon capability when its current enrichment pace would allow it to do so within weeks.

Israeli officials said Bennett told Blinken that Iran can be deterred from moving toward enriching uranium to the military level of 90% if it knows that the U.S. and European countries would ramp up sanctions to the level they've placed on Russia.

Bennett also told Blinken that the nuclear deal will only be “a Band-Aid” solution for just a few years, and at the same time, it will give Iran billions of dollars it would be able to use for its regional malign activities and to arm its proxies, Israeli officials said.

“It is us here in the region that will have to deal with that afterward," Bennett told Blinken, according to a senior Israeli official.

The Iran deal also came up during the Negev summit a day later.

Foreign Minister Yair Lapid's Egyptian, Moroccan, Emirati and Bahraini counterparts raised concerns about the nuclear deal and its regional consequences, stressing they are against the Biden administration removing the IRGC from the FTO blacklist, two senior Israeli officials told me.

State of play: EU political director Enrique Mora was in Tehran on Sunday and met Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator to try to find a compromise regarding the IRGC demand.

Mora then traveled to Washington for talks with U.S. Iran envoy Rob Malley.

During a conference in Doha, Qatar, on Sunday, Malley said he doesn’t think a nuclear deal with Iran is around the corner.

Blinken asks Bennett for his Iran deal alternative

Bennett (right) and Blinken on March 27. Photo: Israeli Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Iranian officials have not agreed to publicly commit to de-escalation in the region — a U.S. condition for removing the country's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from a terror list, two U.S. sources with direct knowledge of the issue and one Israeli official told me.

Why it matters: An agreement to restore the 2015 nuclear deal is nearly complete, but Iran's demand that President Biden reverse former President Trump's decision to designate the IRGC as a Foreign Terrorist Organization is one of the last remaining sticking points.

Driving the news: In recent weeks, U.S. envoy for Iran Rob Malley negotiated the IRGC point indirectly with the Iranians through EU political director Enrique Mora.

One of the proposals raised by the U.S. in the negotiations was that the Biden administration would remove the IRGC from the FTO blacklist in return for a public commitment from Iran to de-escalation in the region.

The Iranians didn’t agree to the U.S. demand and suggested giving the U.S. a private side letter instead, two U.S. sources and one Israeli official told me.

A senior State Department official didn't comment on the Iranian position, but said the U.S. reiterated its position on the IRGC designation to the Iranians a couple of days ago and is awaiting a response.

As time passed, the White House has become increasingly concerned about the domestic political fallout of some kind of a deal with Iran regarding the IRGC and started cooling down to the idea, the two U.S. sources with direct knowledge of the issue said.

The senior State Department official said that there was no change in the U.S. position regarding the IRGC designation.

Democratic Sens. Ben Cardin and Bob Menendez publicly criticized the possibility of removing the IRGC from the terror blacklist.

Republicans have also expressed outrage over the possible move. Three former senior national security officials in the Trump administration called the move “dangerous capitulation” in a joint statement issued on Tuesday.

What they're saying: A White House National Security Council spokesperson said the portrayal of the indirect talks with the Iranians regarding the IRGC wasn’t accurate.

“As we have said, the president will re-enter JCPOA if it’s in the best interest of America’s national security and fully returns Iran to its nuclear commitments. There remain a number of outstanding gaps in these negotiations. The onus on closing these gaps rests with Iran," the NSC spokesperson said.

Yes, but: Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian told his Iraqi counterpart that Iran has offered some initiatives to the U.S. through the EU coordinator regarding the highly important remaining issues and stressed the onus is now on the U.S. side to show good faith, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

What’s next: State Department spokesperson Ned Price hinted on Monday that the U.S. is waiting until after the two-week Nowruz holiday to determine whether Iran is willing to move on its demands.

The senior State Department official later clarified that Price's comments did not mean that the U.S. is going to wait until after the Nowruz holiday, but expects to get the Iranian response within days.

Price on Tuesday said the Biden administration has long discussed “alternatives” with France, Germany, the U.K., Israel and Gulf countries to prepare for a scenario where there is no return to the 2015 nuclear deal.

“We will have a good sense of all of this before long," he said.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with the senior State Department official's comments. The headline has also been updated. 

Iran hasn't agreed to U.S. conditions for removing IRGC from terror list

The White House has become increasingly concerned about the domestic fallout of some kind of a deal with Iran regarding the IRGC.

IRGC leaders in January 2020. Photo: Iranian Supreme Leader Press Office/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Removing the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from a U.S. terror list would be “a dangerous capitulation," three former senior Trump administration officials, including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, said in a joint statement exclusively shared with Axios.  

Why it matters: The status of the IRGC is one of the last remaining sticking points  in talks to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement. 

The Biden administration is considering removing the group from the Foreign Terrorist Organization list in return for a public commitment from Iran to de-escalation in the region, according to U.S. officials and Israeli officials. 

The big picture: Former President Trump pulled out of the nuclear deal in 2018 and imposed a "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran. 

A year later, the Trump administration designated the IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization. 

What they are saying: Removing the IRGC from the terrorism blacklist would be “a denial of the basic reality that the IRGC's core mission is to spread terror," Pompeo, former national security adviser Robert O’Brien and former director of national intelligence John Ratcliffe said in a joint statement. 

The three former Trump officials quoted the U.S. Intelligence Community Annual Threat Assessment issued last month, which said that Iran is a direct and indirect threat to U.S. persons and "previously attempted to conduct lethal operations in the United States."

“These assessments, combined with the IRGC's lengthy history of killing hundreds of Americans…make it clear: The IRGC is a terrorist organization and should remain labeled as such," Pompeo, O’Brien and Ratcliffe said.

“The pursuit of an ill-conceived ‘deal’ should not compel American leaders to acquiesce to the demands of a terrorist regime to deny the truth. American lives are at stake, and this is a time to project strength, not weakness."

The White House and the State Department declined to comment.

Between the lines: Removing the designation is a political hot potato for President Biden. The mere consideration of doing so has already created an uproar among Republicans and criticism from some Democrats as well.

Even if removed from the State Department’s list of Foreign Terror Organizations, the IRGC will remain on a separate terror list and subject to numerous sanctions.

What’s next: State Department spokesperson Ned Prince said on Monday that an agreement on returning to the 2015 nuclear deal “is neither imminent nor is it certain."

Price added that the Biden administration is preparing equally for scenarios with and without a deal. 

The Biden administration expects Iranian negotiators will be on vacation during the Nowruz holiday, which started on Monday and usually lasts for two weeks, Price hinted.

Pompeo: Removing Iran's IRGC from terror list would be "dangerous capitulation"

The status of the IRGC is one of the last remaining sticking points  in talks to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei meets with leaders of the IRGC last January. Photo: Handout via Getty

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid issued a joint statement on Friday urging the Biden administration not to remove the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps from the U.S. blacklist of foreign terrorist organizations.

Why it matters: Bennett and Lapid's statement was unusually strong in its criticism of the Biden administration, calling the proposed move "an insult to the victims."

It reveals the impact a decision on the Revolutionary Guards have on U.S. relations with Israel and other allies in the region who have been targeted by the group and would see such a move as a betrayal by the Biden administration.

Driving the news: On Wednesday, Axios reported that the Biden administration is considering removing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from a terror blacklist in return for a public commitment from Iran to de-escalate in the region.

An agreement to restore the 2015 nuclear deal is nearly complete, but Iran's demand that President Biden reverse Donald Trump's decision to designate the IRGC as a Foreign Terrorist Organization is a key remaining sticking point.

What they are saying: "The Iranian Revolutionary Guards are Hezbollah in Lebanon, they are Islamic Jihad in Gaza, they are the Houthis in Yemen, they are the militias in Iraq," Bennett and Lapid said. "The fight against terrorism is a global one, a shared mission of the entire world. We believe that the United States will not abandon its closest allies in exchange for empty promises from terrorists." 

Bennett and Lapid said, "The IRGC is responsible for attacks on American civilians and American forces throughout the Middle East, including in the past year." They added that the "IRGC was behind plans to assassinate senior American government officials."

"The IRGC were involved in the murder of hundreds of thousands of Syrian civilians, they destroyed Lebanon and they are brutally oppressing Iranian civilians," Bennett and Lapid said. 

They added: "We find it hard to believe that the IRGC’s designation as a terrorist organization will be removed in exchange for a promise not to harm Americans."

A state department spokesperson said that they would not "respond to specific claims about what sanctions we would be prepared to lift as part of a mutual return to full implementation of the JCPOA."

"We are prepared to make difficult decisions to return Iran's nuclear program to JCPOA limits. An unrestricted Iranian nuclear program has led to an escalating nuclear crisis and to greatly increased threats to U.S. citizens, interests, and partners in the region."

"The United States and Israel share a common interest: seeing to it that Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon. We’ve been clear that a mutual return to full implementation of the JCPOA is the best diplomatic path forward and the best way to achieve this objective," the spokesperson added. 

Go deeper: U.S. weighs deal to remove Iran's IRGC from terror blacklist

Israel urges Biden not to remove Iran's Revolutionary Guards from terror blacklist

Bennett and Lapid's statement was unusually strong in its criticism of the Biden administration.

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett speaks at a cabinet meeting in February.

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett speaks at a cabinet meeting in February. Photo: Tsafrir Abayov/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

The incoming Biden administration and the Israeli government are on a collision course over the future of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

Why it matters: There is a growing gap between Biden’s stated intention to re-enter the deal and Israel’s expectations and public demands against it.

Biden’s soon-to-be national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, reiterated at a WSJ conference on Monday that the new administration will first attempt to put Iran “back into the box” of the nuclear deal and only then move toward a “follow-on negotiation” to include Iran’s missile program and its regional behavior.

That same day, Israel's ambassador to Washington, Ron Dermer, said on MSNBC that what “keeps him up at night” is the thought that the U.S. would return to the deal.

Netanyahu has personally started campaigning against any return to the deal, which he vocally opposed in the first place and then encouraged President Trump to abandon.

That could lead to a "Groundhog Day" scenario, in which U.S.-Israel relations under Biden become a repeat of the Obama era.

That follows four years in which Netanyahu's government and the Trump administration were totally aligned on Iran, including over Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign.

At a conference on Iran on Monday, one of Israel’s most senior defense officials said Israel expects Biden to keep all of Trump's sanctions in place, despite Biden's statements to the contrary.

"Don’t give up the sanctions five minutes before you start the negotiations," insisted Zohar Palti, who oversees the political-security division at the Israeli Ministry of Defense.

Speaking at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, Palti said Trump had done an "outstanding job with sanctions." Biden, he said, had to take office showing a willingness to be tough on Iran, rather than an unreasonable expectation that Iran would compromise.

The other side: Former U.S. ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro, who is likely to get a senior Middle East job in Biden's administration, wrote in a Washington Post op-ed that Israel would have a chance to make its case in early, high-level consultations with the Biden administration.

But Shapiro also wrote that Israel "will have no ability to dictate U.S. policy."

Instead of getting into a clash with Biden over a U.S. return to the deal, Shapiro wrote, the Israeli government should focus on developing a common strategy with the new administration over the next step: what a follow-on deal should look like. 

What’s next: In the coming days, an Iranian law will come into force setting a 60-day deadline for the U.S. to lift sanctions. If the U.S. doesn't do so, the law states, Iran will raise uranium enrichment levels to 20% and limit UN inspectors' access to its nuclear sites.

The bottom line: Swift diplomacy and decision-making over the nuclear deal will be required once Biden takes office in January. He can expect opposition from Israel.

Biden and Netanyahu are on a collision course over Iran

Netanyahu has personally started campaigning against any return to the Iran deal

Photo illustration of Joe Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu looking at each other with a split Iran in the background. 

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photos: Eric Baradat (AFP), Gali Tibbon (AFP)/Getty Images

The world is waiting to see whether Iran will strike back at Israel or the U.S. over the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the architect of Iran's military nuclear program.

Why it matters: Senior Iranian officials have stressed that Iran will take revenge against the perpetrators, but also respond by continuing Fakhrizadeh’s legacy — the nuclear program. The key question is whether Iran will accelerate that work now, or wait to see what President-elect Biden puts on the table.

The backstory: Iran has waited out two years of "maximum pressure" under President Trump, breaching the enrichment limits of the 2015 nuclear deal after Trump withdrew but stopping short of more drastic steps. 

Biden has long said that if Iran returns to compliance, he'll loosen sanctions in order to bring the U.S. back into the deal.

State of play: Hardliners in Tehran have long been critical of President Hassan Rouhani's "strategic patience" policy, and their voices have grown louder in the wake of Fakhrizadeh's assassination.

Iran's nuclear dilemma: Ramp up now or wait for Biden

Biden's team has refused to comment on the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.

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