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Chinese state media is highlighting the history of U.S.-China people-to-people ties and Chinese leader Xi Jinping's own positive experiences in the U.S. ahead of his meeting with President Biden this week.

Why it matters: It's the first time since Biden became president that Chinese state media has launched a sweeping pro-U.S. messaging campaign. The propaganda push, aimed at charming both domestic and U.S. audiences, signals Beijing may be serious about getting the U.S.-China relationship on more stable footing.

It's a dramatic about-face from the steady drumbeat of state media headlines in years casting the U.S. as a dangerous hegemon trying to contain China.

Warmer people-to-people ties can have a tempering effect on any extreme swings in state-to-state ties and can help foster business and trade between local areas.

Beijing has an uphill battle: New polling data from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs found 58% of American respondents view China's rise as the greatest threat to U.S. interests — the highest level recorded since the survey began in 1990.

What's happening: Xi wrote a letter to a 103-year-old U.S. World War II veteran who was a member of the Flying Tigers, a group of fighter squadrons formed to help China defeat the invading Japanese army, Chinese state news service Xinhua reported.

"In the past, our two peoples fought the Japanese fascists together, and forged a deep friendship that withstood the test of blood and fire," Xi's letter stated.

A group of Flying Tigers veterans and their families flew to China in late October in a delegation, visiting sites where the Chinese and American militaries had worked together to fight the Japanese army. 

The visit and the history of the Flying Tigers were also given premium placement in the official People's Daily on Tuesday.

Between the lines: Chinese leaders have previously highlighted the struggle shared between the U.S. and China against the Japanese army as a way to appeal to a sense of historical U.S.-Chinese solidarity.

"At times when China's current leadership is looking for common ground and shared history, this is one of the totems they go to," Katie Stallard, author of "Dancing on Bones: History and Power in China, Russia, and North Korea," told Axios.

"It's regular Americans and regular Chinese fighting alongside each other."

Details: Chinese state media is lauding numerous other highlights in U.S.-China people-to-people ties as well.

Last week, the Philadelphia Orchestra performed in Beijing to mark the 50th anniversary of its first visit to China in 1973, and Xi wrote a letter to the orchestra's president thanking the group for its role in fostering warm U.S.-China ties, the People's Daily reported. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson also praised the orchestra in a press briefing.

Xinhua also wrote about Xi's visit to Muscatine, Iowa, back in 1985, when he stayed with a host family — a visit that state media also lauded in 2012 as Xi assumed power and which some U.S. observers took at the time to be a sign that China's new leader wanted to foster warm relations with the U.S.

Xi invited his "old friends" from Iowa to a dinner on the sidelines of APEC.

What they're saying: "This has been a heck of a journey — we can't figure it out. We don't even know why he likes us!" Sarah Lande, who first met Xi in Muscatine in 1985 and who has helped maintain the city's ties to Xi over the years, told Bloomberg.

Between the lines: It seems "increasingly clear that Xi and team have decided their best chance for a tactical stabilization in U.S.-China relations" is by "appealing straight to Americans at local and sub-national levels," China watcher Bill Bishop wrote in Sinocism this week.

What to watch: The tone of Chinese domestic propaganda efforts can provide early signals about the Chinese Communist Party's policy shifts, Weifeng Zhong, an analyst at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, told my Axios colleague Matt Phillips.

"If you want to reengage with the U.S., you need to change the public opinion, yet again, to explain why America or the American people are suddenly good people again," he said.

Chinese state media turns on the charm ahead of Biden-Xi meeting

It signals that Beijing is serious about improving U.S.-China ties.

Illustration of charm bracelet with the Chinese star and American flag as diamond encrusted charms. 

World

President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are set to meet Wednesday in San Francisco for the first time since the G20 summit in Indonesia last November.

The big picture: Biden has publicly sought to temper expectations for the four-hour meeting in San Francisco, but announcements on fentanyl, military communications and other key issues are expected, according to news reports. 

Biden told reporters on Tuesday that his goals for the meeting are to "get back on a normal course, corresponding and being able to pick up the phone and talk to one another in a crisis, and being able to make sure that our militaries still have contact with one another," Reuters reports.

Details: Biden and Xi are expected to announce a deal that would see Chinese authorities crack down on the chemical companies that produce the deadly opioid fentanyl, Bloomberg reports.

The two sides are preparing to announce the resumption of military-to-military communications, Axios reported last week.

Beijing is hoping for expanded dialogue related to artificial intelligence, the Financial Times reports — perhaps with the goal of preventing additional U.S. restrictions.

Taiwan will likely be a major topic of discussion, though no new assurances from either side are expected.

Yes, but: No joint statement is expected, as the differences between the two leaders remain great, the Financial Times reports.

What's at stake: "With Taiwan's looming presidential election and public confrontation flaring between China and the Philippines over the South China Sea, the near-term risk of tensions between Washington and Beijing escalating over both issues is high," said Amanda Hsiao, senior China analyst at the International Crisis Group.

"The Xi-Biden meeting provides an important opportunity for the two leaders to convey to each other that neither seeks to overturn the status quo" and that neither side seeks military conflict, said Hsiao.

Go deeper... Scoop: Inside Biden's delay on Indo-Pacific trade deal

Scoop: Inside Biden's delay on Indo-Pacific trade deal

Biden-Xi meeting: What to expect

Announcements on fentanyl, military communications and other key issues are expected, according to news reports.

Xi Jinping arrives at San Francisco International Airport on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco, California, US, on Tuesday, Nov. 14, 2023. Photo: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Pro Rata

Axios Pro Rata

Private equity and venture capital funds could be facing more regulations on their investments into China, due to a new bill introduced by Sens. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.).

Why it matters: This could escalate tensions between the world's two largest economies, just as there are new signs of cooperation ahead of this week's APEC summit in San Francisco.

Presidents Biden and Xi Jinping expected to meet on Wednesday.

Driving the news: The legislation would require private investment funds to annually disclose to the SEC any assets invested in China and other countries of concerns, including entity names, values, and use of proceeds.

The SEC then would publicly release a report on those firms, including percentages of assets invested in China.

Transactions of less than $25 million, or annual aggregate transactions below $50 million, appear to be exempted from the reporting requirements.

Background: This comes just months after the passage of new outbound investment rules focused on Chinese companies involved in sensitive sectors like AI, semiconductors, and quantum computing.

That requirement was attached to the National Defense Authorization Act, but Casey and Scott haven't yet determined a legislative mechanism for their newest endeavor.

The big picture: Sunlight is the best disinfectant, but there's no identifiable mess here. Instead, the bill will just enshrine costly busywork for both private fund managers and federal regulators.

An aide to Casey says that the bill will promote transparency so that pensioners, including those in public systems, can see on an annual basis where their retirement savings are being invested. And, at least in theory, they could object if they see something they don't like.

But pension fiduciaries already should have access to this information, via their limited partnership agreements. And it's not like public employees can just pull their money out of the system over unhappiness with investment strategy.

Moreover, the bill would apply to all private funds, including those backed exclusively by family offices and high-net-worth individuals (i.e., no pensioner money at all).

In a press release, Scott said: "Our adversaries, like Communist China, benefit from a complete lack of transparency allowing them to hide and fund bad behavior — especially when it comes to financial markets. These foreign adversaries lie, cheat and steal, and it's almost impossible to call them out for it. It is time to stop sending American dollars to these countries of concern."

This bill is about U.S. money going into China, not the other way around. And there's nothing in there that stops U.S. firms from investing in said adversaries.

If Scott really believes what he says, he should have written different legislation.

The bottom line: This is the sort of proposal that makes more sense on a political debate stage than it does in practice.

Senators propose China disclosure rule for private equity

The bill would enshrine costly busywork for both investors and regulators.

Animated illustration of a dollar sign being scanned by lasers. 

Private equity

Latest news on Wall Street, Corporate America and financial regulation.

Business

Axios AM

President Biden will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday in San Francisco, where the APEC summit begins this weekend, the White House announced Friday morning.

Why it matters: The Biden administration has been working behind the scenes to improve communication between the superpowers as tensions rise over Taiwan and other military and economic issues.

Details: The leaders will focus on "the continued importance of maintaining open lines of communication, and a range of regional and global issues," Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in a statement.

They'll also discuss how the countries "can continue to responsibly manage competition and work together where our interests align, particularly on transnational challenges that affect the international community."

Thought bubble, from Axios China author Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian: The fact that it has taken months of delicate diplomacy to bring the two leaders together underscores the profound divisions driving the countries apart.

Of note: Thousands of protesters are expected in San Francisco during the summit.

Go deeper: What to expect from Biden and Xi's upcoming meeting

What to expect from Biden and Xi's upcoming meeting

Biden and Xi make it official: U.S., Chinese leaders will meet next week

It will be the first time the leaders have met in-person since last year.

Xi Jinping and Joe Biden in Indonesia in 2022

U.S. President Joe Biden (right) and China's President Xi Jinping meet on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia, on Nov. 14, 2022. Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

A new bill introduced in the House Thursday would require the U.S. intelligence community to share unclassified, open-source intelligence with other government agencies and Congress. 

Why it matters: A growing number of offices and agencies across the U.S. government are now focusing on sustained competition with China, but many lack in-house Chinese language and regional expertise. Greater access to translated unclassified U.S. intelligence could help bridge that gap and improve policy-making and implementation.

What's happening: Mike Gallagher (R-WI), who chairs the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, and Joaquin Castro (D-Tx), who sits on the House intelligence committee, introduced on Thursday the Open Source Intelligence Availability Act.

If passed, the draft law would mean the Commerce and Treasury Departments, the U.S. Trade Representative's Office, Congress and other offices and agencies would be able to have access to resources such as translations of Chinese procurement documents, translations of speeches and commercial satellite imagery used by the U.S. government.

What they're saying: "Over the last several years, the intelligence community has made important investments in open-source, unclassified intelligence that could play an important role in decision-making in Congress and other federal agencies if it was shared more widely," Castro said in a statement to Axios.

"There's no reason for any unclassified open-source intelligence to be siloed off from other parts of U.S. government. This is a common-sense bill that ensures that every agency across the federal government is tracking cleared intelligence products that can improve their agency's work and keep Americans even safer," Gallagher said. 

Background: Open-source materials, such as satellite imagery, speech transcripts posted online, and corporate records in public databases, have become more readily available in recent years.

They've also become increasingly important to understanding what is happening in China, as the government in Beijing has made it harder for journalists, businesses and diplomats to operate there.

What to watch: Castro is also working on having the Open Source Intelligence Act included in the 2024 Intelligence Authorization Act. 

First look: Lawmakers' new bill seeks greater access to U.S. intelligence

It would require the U.S. intelligence community to share unclassified, open-source intelligence with other government agencies and Congress.

Illustration of an unlocked padlock made out of a manila folder.

House Intelligence Committee

Share of adults in China who say they regard the U.S. as an <span style="color: #421ab3;">"ally"</span> or an <span style="color:#b35500;">"enemy"</span> to China

Data: Morning Consult; Chart: Axios Visuals

Attitudes in China have become friendlier to the U.S. this year, according to a new survey from Morning Consult. One factor could be the slowdown in China's economy.

Why it matters: After several years of spiraling bilateral relations and deepening distrust, the shift in views could help support a thaw as both U.S. and Chinese leaders work to improve dialogue and stabilize relations.

President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet this weekend at the APEC summit in San Francisco, their first meeting since the G20 summit in Indonesia last year.

By the numbers: In April 2022 more than 80% of Chinese respondents said they viewed the U.S. as an enemy, according to the poll. 

But by October 2023, that number had fallen to less than 50%.

Meanwhile, China's economy has slowed to its lowest level of growth in decades amid real estate and debt crises, sky-high youth unemployment, and declining foreign investment.

More than 75% of Chinese respondents said they were concerned about U.S.-China tensions, and more than 75% also said both sides should work to resolve tensions. 

Go deeper: Yellen previews Biden's economic approach to Xi meeting

Yellen previews Biden's economic approach to Xi meeting

Hostility toward the U.S. in China has dropped sharply, new poll shows

The shift in views could help support a thaw in U.S. and China relations.

Generate

Axios Generate

High stakes talks beginning this weekend between U.S. climate envoy John Kerry and his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua, could pave the way for a smoother United Nations climate summit in Dubai later this month. 

Why it matters: The world's two largest economies are also the world's two largest emitters. The focus is on China in particular, in the hopes that any agreement could help alter the severity and pace of human-caused climate change. 

The discussions will be a test of Kerry's push within the Biden administration to separate climate change from other issues on which the U.S. and China vehemently disagree, from trade policy to Taiwan. 

The talks, set to last Saturday through Monday at Sunnylands resort in Rancho Mirage, California, also come amid media reports that Xie may step down soon after COP28. 

Zoom in: China is a powerhouse when it comes to renewable energy production and deployment, but it is still the world's largest coal consumer and is approving new coal-fired power plants at a rapid clip. 

Kerry has been outspoken in his concerns, given coal is a particularly carbon-intensive fuel and new plants are unlikely to be shut down for many years.  

Cutting the deployment of new coal plants is likely to be a topic of discussion at COP28, where countries will jockey over language targeting fossil fuels.

The intrigue: China's carbon emissions peak will have an outsized influence on when global emissions will stop climbing, and when they begin to decline. 

The later the peak date and start of the decline, the greater the warming that will occur, along with the effects that come with it.

China has committed to a peak date of no later than 2030 but is likely to beat that significantly. 

What they're saying: "The success of the global climate process needs the U.S. and China to talk to each other," said Li Shuo, a policy advisor at Greenpeace. 

What we're watching: The outcome of the meeting, and potentially additional bilateral negotiations after that, is likely to be a joint statement on U.S.-China climate cooperation. 

There are many questions, though, over what such a statement will contain. 

Some groundwork for the meeting may have been covered by another Democratic politician, California Gov. Gavin Newsom. He visited China last week on a climate-focused trip, which included a rare meeting with President Xi Jinping.

One topic that is likely to come up is China's plan to cut planet-warming methane emissions, which is slated to come out soon, having been agreed to during discussions between the two countries in 2021.

Flashback: During the Obama administration, a joint statement helped pave the way for successful talks in Paris in 2015. However, given heightened tensions between the U.S. and China, steps the countries may commit to this time are likely to be more timid. 

The bottom line: "The question now is whether climate change can remain as a resilient topic between the two most powerful countries on this planet. The next few weeks will tell," Shuo said.

US-China climate talks could affect pace, severity of climate change

The talks between John Kerry and his Chinese counterpart may lead to a joint statement.

Photo illustration of John Kerry and Xie Zhenhua with a coal field and smokestack.

Photo illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios. Photos: AFP, Fabrice Coffrini/AFP, Bloomberg, CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images

Climate change

Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Energy & Environment

The goal of China's military modernization plan is to ensure China has the ability to win a war against the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific, not to replicate America's global military power projection capabilities, experts tell Axios.

Why it matters: Becoming Asia's dominant military power would support China's bid to be the center of regional trade and influence, and help secure its territorial claims. But Beijing is reluctant to seek that kind of dominance globally because it would risk embroiling China in responsibilities far beyond its borders.

"China certainly has global ambitions, but I don't think it has global military ambitions the way the U.S. does," says Raymond Kuo, director of the RAND Corporation's Taiwan Policy Initiative. 

"It doesn't want to get involved in conflicts that are peripheral to its interests."

Driving the news: Officials from more than 100 countries have gathered in Beijing this week for China's annual defense forum, where Zhang Youxia, the vice chairman of China's Central Military Commission, accused the U.S. of  "continuing to stir trouble around the world" and interfering in other countries' affairs.

Zoom out: Last year Chinese President Xi Jinping introduced the Global Security Initiative, which he is pushing as an alternative to the U.S.-led order.

The initiative has seen China expand its military cooperation with numerous countries around the world and become more involved in global conflict mediation efforts. 

But Beijing seeks to expand its global military influence through means other than direct intervention in armed conflict, Kuo said, such as by increasing arms sales and putting itself at the center of international norms and decision-making.

Background: Xi has set goals for China's military to modernize by 2035 and to become a "world-class military" by mid-century. He's also said the armed forces must be able to "fight and win a regional war."

China is "trying to reach towards fairly secure, even uncontested military dominance within the region," said Kuo. "That's mostly aimed at the U.S., but to a lesser extent also the Philippines, Japan," and other countries in the region.

By the numbers: The People's Liberation Army (PLA), China's armed forces, is the largest military in the world, though not yet able to match the technological, operational and power projection capabilities of the U.S. 

The PLA has more than 2 million active duty personnel, compared to America's 1.4 million, and about 340 warships, while the U.S. has less than 300. 

The PLA has 3 aircraft carriers; the U.S. has 11.

China now has more than 500 nuclear warheads, and the U.S. Department of Defense projects that number to grow to 1,500 by 2035. The U.S., meanwhile, has more than 5,000. 

Yes, but: The PLA faces significant obstacles to achieving the goals Xi has set. It has no real combat experience; the last time China engaged in a significant armed conflict was in 1979 when China invaded Vietnam. 

Between the lines: Modernization efforts involve developing high-tech weapons and cyber capabilities, as well as reforming the structure of the armed forces to make it more agile and stream-lined. 

The PLA is a "political military, not a national military," Meia Nouwens, senior fellow for Chinese security and defense policy and head of the China Program at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, tells Axios.

In practice, that means each PLA theater has both a political commissar and a military commander, with additional political commissars all the way down through the ranks to the company level.

"[Y]ou have a representative of the party watching what you do at all times, and you're trying to be a military that responds flexibly and in the moment — but still having to check and see if your decision is politically approved, Nouwens said. "That doesn't make for a very effective military."

What to watch: The Biden administration's approach to China's regional military ambitions so far has been to deepen its military and diplomatic engagement in the Indo-Pacific. 

That has included strengthening multilateral groupings such as the Quad and the Indo-Pacific Framework for Prosperity, and reforming the U.S. Marines to fit Indo-Pacific conflict scenarios.

China's military ambitions are mostly regional, not global — for now

Beijing doesn't want to get embroiled in distant conflicts.

Illustration of a globe showing the Indo-Pacific with a stand made of stars from the  People's Republic of China on a red background

China's leader Xi Jinping this week called on women in the country to "create a new trend of family" to help curb an aging population amid a record drop in the birth rate, according to state media.

What he's saying: "Doing a good job in women's work is not only related to women's own development but also related to the harmony of families and society, as well as national development and progress," Xi said during an event in Beijing on Monday, per state media.

"It is necessary to strengthen guidance on young people's perspectives on marriage, childbearing and family," Xi added during the discussion with the leadership of the ruling Chinese Communist Party's All-China Women's Federation, according to Xinhua and other state media.

Thought bubble, via Axios' Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian: As China's population has begun to decline, raising fears of a looming demographic crisis, China's leaders are putting pressure on women to curtail their career and educational ambitions and instead return to traditional roles in the home.

In its early decades, the Chinese Communist Party bolstered its revolutionary credentials by emphasizing women's equality both inside and outside the home. But the CCP's own top ranks have long been male-dominated, and in recent years Beijing has cracked down on Chinese feminists and the country's own #MeToo movement.

Context: The CPP imposed a repressive one-child policy to slow population growth in 1979, but has in recent years relaxed this and now allows couples to have three children each.

Go deeper: China's population falls for first time in over 60 years

China's population falls for first time in over 60 years

Xi says women should "create a new trend of family" in China

"It is necessary to strengthen guidance on young people's perspectives on marriage, childbearing and family," Xi

Chinese President Xi Jinping at an event in Beijing earlier this month. Photo: Pedro Pardo/AFP via Getty Images

Xi Jinping

The U.S. military is bulk buying Japanese seafood to help offset China's import ban of the products after Japan began releasing treated radioactive water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant in August.

Why it matters: The new initiative aims to help soften the impact of China's ban, which is part of its "economic wars," said Rahm Emanuel, U.S. ambassador to Japan, in a Reuters interview published Monday.

"The best way we have proven in all the instances to kind of wear out China's economic coercion is come to the aid and assistance of the targeted country or industry," he said.

The initiative marks the start of a "long-term contract" between U.S. armed forces and Japan's local fisheries and co-ops, Emanuel said.

The other side: Beijing bristled at Emanuel's remarks, Reuters reported.

"The responsibility of diplomats is to promote friendship between countries rather than smearing other countries and stirring up trouble," Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said, per Reuters.

Catch up quick: In August, Japan began releasing more than 1 million metric tons of treated radioactive water from the destroyed Fukushima nuclear plant into the ocean.

Japan announced plans to release the treated water into the Pacific Ocean in 2021, a decade after a massive earthquake and tsunami wrecked the plant and caused a nuclear disaster.

Releasing the treated water is considered a key step to decommissioning the the Fukushima plant, and the International Atomic Energy Agency has deemed the plan safe. 

However, the move was met with protest and pushback. China, previously the largest importer of Japanese seafood, responded with the import ban.

Details: The seafood bought by the U.S. military will be used to feed soldiers in military facilities and sold in shops and restaurants on military bases, Emanuel said.

The first purchase was about a metric ton of scallops, a fraction of the 100,000 tons of scallops China imported from Japan last year, per Reuters.

The purchases will gradually grow to include all kinds of seafood, Emanuel told Reuters.

U.S. military bulk buying Japan's seafood to counter China import ban

The first purchase was about a metric ton of scallops.

Fishery workers sort out seafood caught in offshore trawl fishing in Soma City, Fukushima prefecture on Sept. 1. Photo: STR/JIJI Press/AFP via Getty Images

Japan

A rare meeting between the U.S. and China's top commerce officials last week was followed by a failed attempt to get the countries' defense chiefs together, underscoring the difficulty of getting the two superpowers back on speaking terms. 

Why it matters: The U.S.-China relationship has fallen to a new low point, and U.S. attempts this year to bring China back to the table have largely been rebuffed. 

What's happening: Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo and her counterpart Wang Wentao met last week, marking the first visit by a top Chinese official to Washington since 2020.

The tone of the meeting appeared productive, though there were areas of concern for both sides, including the targeting of businesses in both countries. 

Raimondo told Wang she hoped to continue to build engagement with China, according to the U.S. readout of the meeting. 

“The two sides agreed to establish channels of communication and maintain and strengthen exchanges on economic and trade concerns and other co-operation matters,” China's Commerce Ministry said after the meeting. 

But days later, China rejected the U.S. offer for the two country's defense chiefs to meet this weekend in Singapore.

The Chinese government formally notified the U.S. of its decision to reject the meeting, which U.S. defense officials saw as an especially blunt message, per the Wall Street Journal.

Beijing cut off several channels of military and diplomatic communication after the U.S. shot down a Chinese spy balloon floating over the continental U.S. in February.

Secretary of State Tony Blinken delayed a planned visit to Beijing due to the spy balloon incident, but the Chinese government has not permitted him to reschedule it.

Between the lines: It's notable for the two top commerce officials to meet, particularly because of the Commerce Department's growing role in the U.S.'s tough-on-China policy.

The department has undergone a major transformation from a business promotion office to a key player in U.S. national and economic security. 

Under the Trump and Biden administrations, the department has increasingly been "tasked with overseeing one of the most important challenges today: the holistic reconsideration of America’s economic relationship with China," Katrina Northrop of The Wire China wrote.

Meetings highlight unstable U.S.-China relationship

The U.S.-China relationship has fallen to a new low point, and U.S. attempts this year to bring China back to the table have largely been rebuffed.

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