AP/Peter Morgan

"Lights Out for Stocks: The bull's long gallop might be nearing an end," per Barron's cover story by Ben Levisohn:

What to watch for: "Neither longevity nor high stock prices, nor political turmoil usually are enough to send stocks into a protracted slide. The culprit in nearly every case is recession. The mystery is what will cause the next one."

Two possible triggers:

  1. "The S&P 500 is trading at 17.7 times 12-month forward estimated earnings, near the highest price/earnings ratio since the dot-com boom. ... [B]ear markets almost never begin when stocks are cheap.
  2. "At the same time, the Federal Reserve is normalizing interest rates. That, on its own, won't precipitate a bear market, but it could be a catalyst for one if the central bank hikes too much, too fast."

The takeaway: "Markets tumble all the time, but have a way of coming back, as long as the economy continues to grow."

Go deeper

Dan Primack, author of Pro Rata
16 mins ago - Economy & Business

Leon Black says he "made a terrible mistake" doing business with Jeffrey Epstein

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Rick Friedman/Corbis/Getty Images

Apollo Global Management CEO Leon Black on Thursday said during an earnings call that he made a "terrible mistake" by employing Jeffrey Epstein to work on personal financial and philanthropic services.

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Photo: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

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The state of play: The record growth follows easing of the coronavirus-driven lockdowns that pushed the economy to the worst-ever contraction — but GDP still remains well below its pre-pandemic level.