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What's next for the caliphate?

Illustration: Lazaro Gamio / Axios

ISIS lost its Syrian capital, Raqqa, last week. Trump issued a congratulatory statement; but we've not seen any George W. Bush-style "Mission Accomplished" speeches.

I spoke to Dana White, the top spokeswoman for Defense Secretary James Mattis, about where the U.S. military is at in its fight against ISIS and what challenges lie ahead.

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Shrinking caliphate: In Iraq and Syria the Syrian Democratic Forces and the Iraqi Special Forces — with the help of the U.S. military — have retaken an area the size of California. White says that what ISIS still controls "is a territory slightly smaller than New York State."

Most importantly: White points out that "ISIS has not regained an inch of the territory it has lost."

Bottom line: The power of intimidation, to use Mattis' phrase, is working great. But now comes the hard part.

  • What White calls "the stabilization piece" — working with Syrians and Iraqis on the ground to ensure ISIS doesn't make a comeback — is going to be incredibly tough and time-consuming work.
  • Brett McGurk, the Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, "is responsible for ensuring the hard fought military gains are maintained — ensuring the 73 coalition members (NATO, Arab League, Interpol and EU) continue to support these communities after the fighting stops."
  • "It's why Secretary Mattis and Tillerson work so closely together," White says, "and why [Mattis] insists on having a State Department rep with him when he meets any of his counterparts."
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