Mark Lennihan/AP

The S&P 500 fell 1.24% Tuesday — the first 1% drop since way back in October. Many market watchers are wondering if this is the official end of the Trump rally, and a survey of money managers circulated yesterday among Bank of America clients gave that some backing.

Reasons for optimism: Investors believe that 2017 will bring us both higher global growth, higher corporate profits, and lower corporate taxes. The highest share of investors see higher Chinese growth over the next twelve months since September 13th, and more than half of respondents say tax reform will get done this year.

Reasons for pessimism: Nevertheless, a higher share of investors say the market is overvalued than at any point since 2000. Furthermore, a plurality think that the eventual trigger for a recession will be Federal Reserve rate hikes. If the Fed raises rates 3 times per year, as it estimates, it will reach 2% by early next year, at which point further hikes could be the catalyst for a recession.

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Updated 3 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 12:30 p.m. ET: 32,626,165 — Total deaths: 990,134 — Total recoveries: 22,523,822Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 12:30 p.m. ET: 7,040,313 — Total deaths: 203,918 — Total recoveries: 2,727,335 — Total tests: 99,488,275Map.
  3. States: U.S. reports over 55,000 new coronavirus cases — "We’re not closing anything going forward": Florida fully lifts COVID restaurant restrictions.
  4. Health: Young people accounted for 20% of cases this summer — The long-term pain of the mental health pandemicFewer than 10% of Americans have coronavirus antibodies.
  5. Business: Millions start new businesses in time of coronavirus.
  6. Education: Summer college enrollment offers a glimpse of COVID-19's effect.

America on edge as unrest rises

Louisville on Wednesday. Photo: Jon Cherry/Getty Images

Rarely have national security officials, governors, tech CEOs and activists agreed as broadly and fervently as they do about the possibility of historic civil unrest in America.

Why it matters: The ingredients are clear for all to see — epic fights over racism, abortion, elections, the virus and policing, stirred by misinformation and calls to action on social media, at a time of stress over the pandemic.

Bryan Walsh, author of Future
2 hours ago - Health

The long-term pain of the mental health pandemic

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

A less visible but still massive trauma caused by the coronavirus is becoming clear: our mental health is suffering with potentially long-lasting consequences.

Why it matters: Mental health disorders that range from schizophrenia to depression and anxiety exert a severe cost on personal health and the economy. Addressing that challenge may require out-of-the-box solutions.