Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

The Treasury held an incredibly weak auction of 2-year government debt Tuesday that saw primary dealers, who are essentially on clean-up duty, take home their highest share of the auction since December 2018.

What it means: Even though yields on the 2-year note have fallen by nearly 40 basis points this year, traders are convinced that there is "certainly more room for yields to fall," Ben Jeffery, rates analyst at BMO Capital Markets, tells Axios.

Why it matters: It's the latest evidence that the market is growing more certain the Fed will cut U.S. interest rates this year.

One level deeper: "As for the auction, it suggests that given how far and how fast the move has run, some primary market participants seem to be of the mind more attractive entry points could present themselves over the near term," Jeffery adds.

Another level deeper: The coronavirus outbreak has hurt the buying power of investors in Japan and China, who are direct bidders in U.S. Treasury auctions, a category of buyer that typically takes a substantial percentage.

  • "Remember, one of the important reasons for foreign interest in U.S. Treasuries is that they invest the profits from the trade surplus they enjoy with the U.S.," DRW Trading rates strategist Lou Brien tells Axios.
  • "But the virus has curtailed a lot of trade, and therefore [there are] fewer profits to invest."

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Coronavirus cases rise in 25 states

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Data: The COVID Tracking Project, state health departments; Map: Andrew Witherspoon, Sara Wise/Axios

New coronavirus infections rose over the past week in half the country.

Why it matters: The U.S. remains largely unable or unwilling to control the spread of the virus.

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 3 a.m. ET: 33,976,447 — Total deaths: 1,014,266 — Total recoveries: 23,644,023Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 3 a.m. ET: 7,233,945 — Total deaths: 206,959 — Total recoveries: 2,840,688 — Total tests: 103,939,667Map.
  3. Education: School-aged children now make up 10% of all U.S COVID-19 cases.
  4. Health: Moderna says its coronavirus vaccine won't be ready until 2021
  5. Travel: CDC: 3,689 COVID-19 or coronavirus-like cases found on cruise ships in U.S. waters — Airlines begin mass layoffs while clinging to hope for federal aid
  6. Business: Real-time data show economy's rebound slowing but still going.
  7. Sports: Steelers-Titans NFL game delayed after coronavirus outbreak.
Updated 3 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Trump signs stopgap bill to prevent government shutdown

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnel and President Trump arrives at the U.S. Capitol in March. Photo: Samuel Corum/Getty Images

President Trump signed a bill to extend current levels of government funding after funding expired briefly, White House spokesperson Judd Deere confirmed early Thursday.

Why it matters: The move averts a government shutdown before the Nov. 3 election. The Senate on Wednesday passed the legislation to fund the federal government through Dec. 11, by a vote of 84-10.