Updated Dec 23, 2018

Wall Street vs. the Fed: The future of interest rate hikes in 2019

Traders work on the floor of the NYSE as Fed chair Jerome Powell holds a news conference. Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

The market is betting that the Federal Reserve won't be able to raise rates at all next year, while the Fed's projections show policymakers think they'll raise rates twice by next December.

The bottom line: Investors who play in the futures contracts market are putting their money where their mouths are in expectation that central bankers are either bluffing or deluding themselves.

The big picture: Fed funds futures prices show investors see just a 47% chance interest rate rise from 2.25–2.50% (where they are now) to 2.50–2.75% by December 2019, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. That would be one 25-basis-point increase, which the Fed has now done four times in 2018.

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Scoop: Amazon's local podcast play

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Amazon is looking to invest in localized podcast content, like news and sports, sources tell Axios. Sports content is top of mind as the company plans to buy up more TV rights and have adjacent audio content for users.

Why it matters: Amazon sees a strategic advantage in podcasts by leveraging Alexa voice tech to help users discover personalized content.

The oil stakes of Trump vs. Biden

Reproduced from Rapidan Energy Group; Chart: Axios Visuals

U.S. oil production is in a steep decline, but one question is how much November's elections will affect how much it does — or doesn't — bounce back.

Why it matters: The powerful price and demand headwinds from the coronavirus pandemic are creating a financial crisis in the oil patch.

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