Jan 9, 2019

Wall Street is slowly getting less bullish on 2019

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Data: Analysis of Wall Street outlooks; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

Barclays became the latest Wall Street firm to lower its 2019 year-end price target for the S&P 500, dropping it to 2,750 from 3,000 on Tuesday.

The big picture: Six firms have moved their guidance lower just eight days into the year. Barclays cited retail sentiment that has turned "significantly bearish," and an economic growth outlook outside the U.S. that was "not as constructive."

Yes, but: Despite the pullback, Barclays analysts did note that they still expected U.S. equities to rise overall by the end of the year. No major firm so far has revised its outlook into negative territory.

Go deeper: 2019 could be worst year for economy since '08

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Wall Street has its best year since 2013

Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios Visuals

Wall Street had its biggest annual gain in six years — with the S&P 500 rising 29% and the Nasdaq Composite rising 35% in 2019. The Dow lagged behind other indices, but saw its biggest yearly gain since 2017.

Why it matters: U.S. stocks rebounded from 2018's year-end meltdown to log impressive gains, despite uncertainty stemming from the trade war and a slowdown in economic growth.

U.S. economy adds 145,000 jobs in final report of 2019

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Chart: Axios Visuals

The U.S. economy added 145,000 jobs in December, the government said on Friday, below economists’ expectations of 160,000. The unemployment rate held at 3.5% — a 50-year low — while wages grew 2.9% from a year earlier, the smallest gain since July 2018.

Why it matters: The U.S. job market held up in the final month of 2019, but heads into the election year with a slowing pace of job creation and wage growth.

Go deeperArrowJan 10, 2020

The S&P 500 could be overvalued

The New York Stock Exchange on Jan. 8. Photo: Xinhua/Wang Ying via Getty Images

The S&P 500 is too rich on a number of levels, according to calculations in a new paper from Ned Davis Research that examines the index's price to earnings, profits and price to sales.

What's happening: Not only is the benchmark stock index's current P/E ratio "well above fair value," S&P companies' prices relative to sales is at a record high, “well in excess of what they were in 2000 or 2007 at those peaks,” Ned Davis, the company's senior investment strategist, says in a note to clients.

Go deeperArrowJan 9, 2020