Associated Press

Between Election Day and March 1st, the S&P 500 rose nearly 11%, but has fallen 0.17% in the roughly three weeks since. This loss of momentum indicates that investors are beginning to worry about the fate of corporate tax reform, as the debate over healthcare is revealing broader divisions among Republicans in Washington, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Why it matters: Corporate tax cuts are the simplest way for Washington to cheer up Wall Street — Goldman Sachs recently estimated that the House GOP tax reform plan would boost S&P 500 income by 10%, more than enough to justify the recent run up in stocks. But a closer look at the data shows that investors have lost some confidence in the Republican Party's ability to shepherd major corporate tax relief into law. Smaller firms, which generally pay higher corporate taxes, have suffered in recent weeks, while large banks and utilities have fared better, boosted by unrelated forces like higher interest rates.

What's next: Stock markets can likely handle a delay of corporate tax reform, as long as Wall Street still believes it's coming eventually. Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Economics assumes that deficit hawkery will prevent the GOP from coming together on a tax plan, but that the Trump Administration will be able to pass a deficit-funded tax and spending program, worth 1% of GDP, with the help of red-state Democrats. But this sort of optimism can only hold out so long before White House must show that it can shepherd one coalition or another to pass business-friendly reforms.

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Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 4 p.m. ET: 31,175,205 — Total deaths: 962,076— Total recoveries: 21,294,229Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 4 p.m. ET: 6,829,956 — Total deaths: 199,690 — Total recoveries: 2,590,695 — Total tests: 95,121,596Map.
  3. Health: CDC says it mistakenly published guidance about COVID-19 spreading through air.
  4. Media: Conservative blogger who spread COVID-19 misinformation worked for Fauci's agency.
  5. Politics: House Democrats file legislation to fund government through Dec. 11.
  6. World: "The Wake-Up Call" warns the West about the consequences of mishandling a pandemic.

McConnell: Senate has "more than sufficient time" to process Supreme Court nomination

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said in a floor speech Monday that the chamber has "more than sufficient time" to confirm a replacement for Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg before the election, and accused Democrats of preparing "an even more appalling sequel" to the fight over Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation.

Why it matters: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has said "nothing is off the table next year" if Republicans push ahead with the confirmation vote before November, vowing alongside Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) to use "every procedural tool available to us to ensure that we buy ourselves the time necessary."

House Democrats file legislation to fund government through Dec. 11

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

House Democrats on Monday released their proposal for short-term legislation to fund the government through December 11.

Why it matters: This is Congress' chief legislative focus before the election. They must pass a continuing resolution (CR) before midnight on Oct. 1 to avoid a government shutdown — something both Hill leaders and the White House have claimed is off the table.