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Good morning ... Know what Obamacare is getting for its 7th birthday on Thursday? A repeal vote in the House, that's what! Happy birthday, Obamacare. Gonna be the worst birthday party ever. Brings back bad memories of when I lost at miniature golf on my 7th birthday, and then got repealed.

This is going to be one of those weeks where you really need help de-cluttering your news, and that's what we, on the Axios health care team, are trying to do. But if you think we're missing important stuff, please let us know. And keep checking the Axios health care news stream for all the latest, and sign up for our newsletters and breaking news alerts here.

The three big things to know for repeal week

Giphy

Here's what you need to know as we head into the week of the House vote:

  • Republican leaders may be within striking distance of the 216 votes they need for Trumpcare to pass the House.
  • They're nowhere close to the votes they need in the Senate, thanks to conservatives and moderates turning against it for different reasons.
  • The one new change that seems almost certain to happen: The tax credits will be reworked to give more help to the low-income elderly.
There's still a long way to go in the House, but GOP leaders are a lot closer to nailing down the votes after President Trump struck a deal with the Republican Study Committee on Friday morning to win their support. (Caitlin Owens and Jonathan Swan give a rundown here of the Medicaid changes they've been promised.) Here's who to keep your eye on now:
  • Freedom Caucus members: Even after the Republican Study Committee got on board on Friday, the Freedom Caucus tweeted that it "still opposes the GOP replacement bill in its current form." CNN reports that the group's chairman, Rep. Mark Meadows, and Sens. Ted Cruz and Mike Lee met with top Trump aides at Mar-a-Lago this weekend to try to push the bill farther to the right.
  • Reality check: The Freedom Caucus is certainly capable of causing trouble for House Speaker Paul Ryan — they made life miserable for John Boehner. But how many would actually vote against a repeal bill when the time comes? You'll know the tide has turned if you start hearing "I don't like it but won't stand in the way" speeches.
  • Moderates: The Washington Post has a good look at what it calls the "sleeping giants," or the moderates who are appalled by the estimated coverage losses. Many are from states that expanded Medicaid, and don't like how the bill handles the end of the expansion.
  • Reality check: The GOP leaders are trying to win them over, as Jonathan Swan reported yesterday — but when was the last time a bill failed in the House because moderate Republicans all stood their ground against the leadership? It's not impossible, but it doesn't happen very often.
The bigger problem is in the Senate, where senators are more independent and less likely to fall in line than in the House. Sens. Ted Cruz and Susan Collins were on separate Sunday talk shows discussing how they can't support the bill, but from opposite ends of the spectrum: Cruz wants to knock out the Obamacare insurance regulations, while Collins is worried about lost coverage and Medicaid cuts. Try to figure out the formula that makes both happy.

Hospitals have a big labor problem coming up

Obamacare was good for health care jobs around the country, but especially for hospitals. Now, Bob Herman reports that they're going to have a problem on their hands if repeal happens: What are they going to do with all of those expensive new hires if millions of people lose health coverage? The hiring has already slowed down because of all of the uncertainty, and if they have fewer patients who can pay for their medical care, they might have to reduce their staffs through attrition — or layoffs. Read Bob's story here.

Don't spend a ton of time learning about "Phase 3"

I was all set to give you an in-depth look at all of the health care bills Republicans are lining up for "Phase 3" of Obamacare replacement — all the proposals they can't put in the budget "reconciliation" bill. Here's the list so far:

  • Competitive Health Insurance Reform Act of 2017 — eliminating the antitrust protection for insurance providers (House voting this week)
  • Small Business Health Fairness Act of 2017 — association health plans (House voting this week)
  • Medical malpractice reform (later this month)
  • Protecting self-insurance (later this month)
  • Selling health insurance across state lines (House Energy and Commerce subcommittee hearing coming soon)

There are substantive reasons to learn about the pros and cons and all of them. But here's the problem: All of them might be able to pass the House pretty easily, but then they'd all need Democratic votes to pass the Senate, since they'd need 60 votes.

So I asked around about whether any of them could get enough Democratic votes, and here's what a Senate Democratic leadership aide told me: "No they will not. We are happy to work with Republicans to improve health care but they have to drop repeal first. If they manage to pass a repeal bill, they're on their own. There won't be a phase 3."

Cruz actually laughed at the idea on CBS's "Face the Nation" yesterday when John Dickerson asked him about it. "That ain't going to happen," Cruz said, calling it "the sucker's bucket." So, moving along ....

Price is still a fan of Medicare balance billing

Steven Brill points out something for your radar: Price's long fight to let doctors charge more to Medicare patients could now be a big deal. Modern Healthcare reported that in his written responses to questions from the Senate Finance Committee considering his nomination for Health and Human Services secretary, Price didn't back down from his support for a change in the Medicare law that would allow doctors participating in the program to "balance bill" Medicare beneficiaries — meaning they could charge them more than the amount Medicare pays. (You can read the exchange here — it starts on page 8.)

Balance bills are often given to patients with private insurance, usually because they are using a doctor out of the insurance company's network. But the practice has always been banned for doctors treating Medicare patients. Under the change long advocated by Price, a former orthopedic surgeon, the doctors could have their cake and eat it, too: be in the Medicare network, but charge as much extra as they can to as many patients as they can.

Why it matters: Medicare, with about 55 million enrollees, protects about twice the number of Americans who are enrolled through the Obamacare exchanges and the expansion of Medicaid.

While you were weekending ...

  • House Rules Committee chairman Pete Sessions faced chants of "Vote him out!" at a town hall meeting in Richardson, Texas, as he talked about the Obamacare repeal effort.
  • Sen. Rand Paul, on ABC's "This Week," predicting the House GOP bill won't pass: "I believe that the real negotiation begins when we stop them."
  • Ryan, on Fox News Sunday, on Trump's proposed cuts to the National Institutes of Health: "NIH is something that's particularly popular in Congress. We just passed the Cures Act just this last December to increase spending in the NIH."
  • Collins on NBC's "Meet the Press," on Trump's NIH cuts: "If we're serious about reducing health care costs, the last thing that we should be doing is cutting the budget for biomedical research."
  • Price, on ABC's "This Week," on ProPublica's bombshell report that U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara was investigating Price's stock trades before he was fired: "I have -- know nothing about that whatsoever."
  • The New York Times looks at how the GOP is confronting the reality that a lot of blue-collar Trump voters depend on government medical care.
  • The Center for American Progress has a district-by-district breakdown of how many people would lose coverage under the GOP bill, based on the Congressional Budget Office estimates.
  • Avik Roy writes that the GOP bill's premium increases for the elderly could be eliminated by means testing the tax credits and adding a standard deduction.
New on Twitter: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services administrator Seema Verma (@SeemaCMS). And if you're not following Tom Price's official account yet, it's @SecPriceMD.

Why Medicaid work requirements won't work

Some think tank is apparently warning that work requirements for Medicaid — the latest thing Republicans are about to add to the Obamacare replacement bill — won't work because "making cash assistance or food stamps contingent on work participation is one issue, denying medical care to sick, poor people is another matter."

Just gonna check and see who wrote that — guessing it's the Center for American Progress or some other lefty think tank that would never...OMG IT'S THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION. Here's what senior research fellow Robert Rector wrote: It's likely to be optional, so most governors would ignore it; the rule would be "almost impossible to administer and enforce;" and, no one's really going to deny medical care to someone who didn't do their work assignments.

Rector isn't really against work requirements in principle — he just thinks they should be applied to food stamps, which would be easier to enforce and covers a lot of the same population. But it will be interesting to see if any Republicans grapple with the practical problems when the Medicaid part of the bill is being rewritten.

What we're watching today: Trump rally in Louisville, Kentucky to build support for the GOP bill, 7:40 p.m. Eastern. Also, Trump meets with Ryan, Price, and Zeke Emanuel, 11:30 a.m. Eastern.

What we're watching this week: House Rules Committee takes up the Obamacare replacement package, probably Wednesday ... and the big House vote, Thursday. The House also votes on bills to eliminate the antitrust protection for insurance providers and to create association health plans. Also, Senate HELP Committee will hold a hearing on reauthorizing the Food and Drug Administration's user fee agreements, Tuesday.

Thanks, and let me know what you'll be drinking on repeal night: david@axios.com.

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Timeline: Devin Nunes and the Trump wiretapping claims

AP

Devin Nunes is facing calls to resign as chairman of House Intelligence and refusing to share, even with his own committee, the sources of his claim that the Obama administration may have surveilled President Trump. Here's how we got to this point:

January 2015: Nunes, a six-term Congressman, becomes chairman of House Intelligence Committee.

November 2016: Nunes begins advising Trump transition team.

January 25, 2017: Nunes and ranking member Adam Schiff announce they're investigating Russian election meddling, including possible communications between Russia and "political campaigns."

March 4: Trump accuses Barack Obama of having Trump Tower "wiretapped".

March 15: After initially defending Trump, Nunes says he does not believe Trump Tower was bugged. But he adds a caveat: Trump campaign communications could have been incidentally collected as part of wider surveillance efforts.

March 20: FBI Director James Comey testifies before Intel Committee, and refutes Trump's claims. Nunes reiterates that there was no "physical" wiretap, but repeats the possibility of incidental collection.

March 21: Nunes travels to White House grounds to review evidence of potential surveillance of Trump associates. The visit is not initially made public.

March 22:

  • Nunes holds unexpected press conference and says an unnamed individual (or individuals) showed him intelligence reports indicating the Obama administration captured communications involving Trump and/or his associates. He said it appeared to be legal, incidental collection but nonetheless seemed "inappropriate" and troubling.
  • Nunes briefs Trump before Schiff, despite Trump being a potential subject of the committee's investigation.
  • Trump says he feels "somewhat" vindicated.

March 23: Nunes expresses regret for failing to brief Intel committee before White House.

March 27:

  • News of Nunes' White House visit emerges.
  • He says he needed to visit WH to access to secure system, an explanation that is immediately challenged.
  • Schiff calls on Nunes to recuse himself from Russia investigation.

March 28:

  • Russia hearings scheduled for this week are abruptly cancelled, including one at which former acting AG Sally Yates was slated to testify.
  • The Washington Post reports (and the WH denies) that the Trump admin tried to block Yates from testifying.
  • Nunes says he will not share his sources for the Trump surveillance claims, even with his own committee.
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Republicans block moves to release Trump's tax returns

Andrew Harnik / AP

Republicans blocked two separate attempts today — a resolution in the Ways and Means Committee and a resolution on the House floor — by House Democrats to force a release of President Trump's tax returns, per The Hill.

  • The Democratic argument from Rep. Zoe Lofren (CA): "I think it is absolutely essential for the president's tax returns to be released so that the members of the Judiciary Committee can do their job to research whether the Emoluments Clause has been violated and whether permission should be given to the president to receive payments from foreign states."
  • The Republican rebuttal from Rep. Kevin Brady (TX): The attempts do "absolutely nothing to promote a substantive policy discussion on the real-life challenges facing the people, families, and job creators we were sent here to serve."
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White House boycotts correspondents' dinner in "solidarity" with Trump

Alex Brandon / AP

The White House Correspondents' Association (WHCA) has been informed that the entire White House staff will be skipping next month's White House Correspondents' Dinner in "solidarity" with President Trump.

The WH announced in February that Trump would not attend, with a spokeswoman saying at the time: "There's no reason for him to go in and sit and pretend like this is going to be just another Saturday night."

Of the full staff boycott, the WHCA said it "regrets this decision very much," adding: "Only the White House can speak to the signal it wants to send with this decision."

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Manafort's finances in Cyprus trigger investigation

Matt Rourke / AP

Former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort was associated with at least 15 bank accounts and 10 companies whose activities triggered a money laundering investigation by a Cypriot bank, per NBC News.

  • One of the Manafort-associated companies was involved in a nearly $20 million deal with a Russian oligarch described as "one of the 2-3 oligarchs Putin turns to on a regular basis."
  • Manafort chose to close his Cypriot accounts rather than provide additional information after their activity triggered a money laundering investigation by the Cyprus Popular Bank.
  • The accounts were set up "for a legitimate business purpose," a Manafort spokesperson told NBC News.
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House votes to roll back privacy protections for internet customers

Elise Amendola / AP

The House voted 215-to-205 Tuesday night to overturn Obama-era regulations that require internet providers like Verizon, Comcast and AT&T to get a user's permission before sharing their browsing history and other data with advertisers. It also prohibits the FCC from creating similar regulations in the future.

The White House has said it will recommend that President Trump sign the resolution, which was already approved by the Senate.

What it means for broadband providers: The rules hadn't yet gone into effect so this doesn't change the day-to-day ways that ISPs deal with customer data. But this likely clears the way for ISPs to go full speed ahead in taking on Facebook and Google for digital ad dollars. Meanwhile, the FCC will have to determine how to deal with privacy on broadband networks without the rules in place.

What it means for net neutrality: The vote could roil the waters on a larger debate over net neutrality. The privacy rules only exist because of the FCC's 2015 net neutrality regulations, which conservatives hate and liberals love. So this rollback — should the president sign it into law — adds a new wrinkle to that conversation.

  • One key lawmaker said this could make a legislative deal on net neutrality more difficult. "I mean, after this today, if this goes through, this is like a sledgehammer, right?" said Frank Pallone, the top Democrat on the House's Energy and Commerce Committee, adding, when asked about the chances of a net neutrality bill in light of the upcoming vote, "I'm always willing to meet with people but I think this really poisons the well."
  • Republican Sen. John Thune, who will likely lead any effort to reach a deal, said he would be willing to consider adding privacy protections to a legislative compromise on net neutrality "if that were something that it took to get Democrats to the table." Marsha Blackburn, who chairs a key tech subcommittee and sponsored the House resolution to roll back the privacy rules, said that she didn't think the vote would make getting a deal more difficult. "We're doing what needs to be done," she told Axios.
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Ryan and McConnell seem to diverge on Obamacare

J. Scott Applewhite / AP; J. Scott Applewhite / AP

At the House GOP Leadership press conference this morning, Paul Ryan seemed to indicate that Republican attempts to repeal Obamacare aren't done yet:

"We want to get it right, we're gonna keep talking to each other until we get it right. I'm not gonna put a timeline on it because this is too important to not get right."

But it seemed like Mitch McConnell didn't get that message before the Senate GOP Leadership press conference this afternoon:

"I want to thank the president and speaker — they went all out to try to pass repeal and replacement. Sorry that didn't work, but our Democratic friends now have the law that they wrote and wanted. And we'll see how that works out."

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Here comes Brexit

Christopher Furlong / AP

U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May signed a letter this afternoon that officially declared the country's intention to leave the European Union. Addressed to European Council President Donald Tusk, it'll be hand delivered by Sir Tim Barrow, the British ambassador to the E.U., to Brussels tomorrow afternoon.

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Dunkin' Donuts and Waze will order your coffee

Mike Mozart via Flickr CC

Boston is gearing up for a mass descent on drive thru lines: Google's Waze, the traffic navigation app, is teaming up with Dunkin' Donuts to order coffee for drivers before they arrive at brick and mortar stores, according to The Boston Globe.

If this goes well, Waze will expand the "order ahead" function to other merchants.

The partnership: Waze doesn't earn a commission on the Dunkin' Donuts sales, but Dunkin' Donuts is increasing the amount it spends on Waze ads. To place an order, users will need both the Waze and the Dunkin' Donuts apps installed and be registered with the Dunkin' loyalty program.

Why it matters: Brand loyalty for Dunkin' and Waze. Note, Starbucks had a similar partnership announced last week with Amazon's Alexa and Ford vehicles. The Dunkin' Donuts-Waze partnership allows anyone — not just Ford drivers with Alexa — to take advantage, but will bring people time and time again to both Waze and Dunkin'.

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Nunes won't share surveillance source with own committee

Pablo Martinez Monsivais / AP

House Intelligence chairman Devin Nunes will not share the sources behind his claim that the Obama administration may have surveilled President Trump and/or his associates - even with his own committee.

Adam Schiff, the top Democrat on the committee, has already called on Nunes to recuse himself from the Russia investigation after it emerged that the chairman was on White House grounds when he reviewed the alleged evidence behind his claims. One House Republican, Walter Jones, echoed that call today.

Nunes is under increasing pressure, but made this defiant statement to a Fox News reporter today:

We will never reveal those sources and methods
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Spicer tells reporter to stop shaking her head

During today's press briefing, Sean Spicer claimed that people would claim there was a Russia connection if Trump used Russian salad dressing, to which white house correspondant April Ryan began shaking her head. Spicer told her not to...

And Ryan tweeted in response:

Ryan then talked to CNN about the interaction: