Jul 9, 2019

U.S. GDP on course for weakest quarter since 2015

Expand chart
Data: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta; Chart: Harry Stevens/Axios

U.S. GDP growth in the second quarter is expected to come in significantly below first quarter growth, as the impact of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act fades.

The big picture: It would be the weakest quarter of U.S. growth since Q4 2015.

  • This year's Q2 growth is also expected to show far less inventory investment than Q1, which got a boost of 0.65% from a $46.3 billion inventory buildup by U.S. firms. Government spending was seen as slower in Q2.
  • Last year's second quarter also showed significant growth, rising 4.2% year-over-year, which was the strongest quarter in nearly 4 years.

Go deeper: The global push to reinvent GDP

Go deeper

U.S. GDP growth slows to 2.1% in the 2nd quarter

Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Chart: Chris Canipe/Axios

The U.S. economy grew at a 2.1% annualized rate in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said on Friday.

Why it matters: It's a significant slowdown from the first quarter's 3.1% growth rate, but still better than the 1.9% economists had expected. Once again, strong consumer spending offset the sharp decline in business investment and trade's drag on growth.

Go deeperArrowJul 26, 2019

Atlanta and New York Fed forecasts see weaker Q2 GDP

NoteData: New York Fed and Atlanta Fed; Chart: Axios Visuals

Ahead of today's second quarter U.S. GDP report, estimates from economists and market analysts have varied from as low as 1% to higher than 3% after a strong first quarter.

By the numbers: The forecasts from the Atlanta and New York Fed ended up uncharacteristically close to one another, suggesting a major slowdown from Q1's 3.1% year-over-year GDP gain.

Go deeper: The difficulty with predicting GDP

Keep ReadingArrowJul 25, 2019

The inexplicable decline in retail sales growth

Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

Headlines Tuesday painted a picture of a booming U.S. retail market: Amazon's well-covered Prime Day(s) generated an estimated $5.8 billion of sales and the Commerce Department's retail sales report showed an especially strong reading for June.

Yes, but: A deeper dive into the data shows retail sales growth is slowing, with the all-important online component — the major source of growth, as brick-and-mortar sales struggle — cooling notably.

Go deeperArrowJul 17, 2019