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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Declining COVID cases, rising vaccination rates, trillions of dollars in government spending and an accommodative Federal Reserve are coming together to create a year of U.S. economic growth for the record books.

Why it matters: A sustained, surging economy is the best way to erase the brutal legacy of business losses and unemployment caused by the pandemic.

Driving the news: This morning's first look at Q1 U.S. economic growth is expected to top 6%.

  • Year-long forecasts for growth are even higher; Goldman Sachs — in a research note literally titled "Anatomy of a Boom" — predicts more than 7% growth in 2021, a sustained pace not seen in more than 30 years.
  • The bank writes that post-vaccine hopes of economic rebound are changing from "from forecast to fact."

The Federal Reserve also upgraded its view of the economy yesterday and this week's measure of consumer confidence hit its highest reading since the pandemic began.

What's next: More data is coming to bolster the boom case.

  • Retail sales are expected to have surged in March, with Credit Suisse forecasting sales will top the pre-pandemic peak of Feb. 2020, and housing starts should reverse a recent decline.

The bottom line: Get used to lots of economic charts going up and to the right.

Go deeper

U.S. unemployment rate hits new pandemic-era low

Photo: Shawn Thew/EPA/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The U.S. economy added 943,000 jobs in July, while the unemployment rate fell from 5.9% to a new pandemic-era low of 5.4%.

Why it matters: It’s the biggest hiring spree in almost a year as the labor market makes strides to a full recovery.

Brazil's health minister tests positive for COVID during UN summit in N.Y.

President of Brazil Jair Bolsonaro (L) and Health Minister Marcelo Queiroga in Brasilia, Brazil, in May. Photo: Andressa Anholete/Getty Images

Brazil's Health Minister Marcelo Queirog has tested positive for COVID-19 while in New York City for the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), he confirmed Tuesday night.

Why it matters: Hours earlier, Queirog had accompanied Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro to the UNGA. The Biden administration expressed concern last week that the gathering of world leaders could become a coronavirus "superspreader event."

Updated 3 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Trump sues New York Times and his niece over tax report

Former President Trump hosting a boxing match in Hollywood, Florida on Sept. 11. Photo: Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty Images

Former President Trump filed a $100 million lawsuit against the New York Times and his niece Mary Trump on Tuesday over the news outlet's 2018 reporting on his tax records, the Daily Beast first reported.

Details: The suit, filed in New York's Dutchess County, alleges NYT journalists "engaged in an insidious plot to obtain confidential and highly-sensitive records" and that they "convinced" Mary Trump to "smuggle records out of her attorney's office and turn them over to The Times."

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