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Expand chart
Data: Congressional Budget Office; Chart: Axios Visuals

The Congressional Budget Office expects the U.S. budget deficit will top $1 trillion in fiscal year 2020, the first trillion-dollar deficit in history not caused by the Great Recession.

Why it matters: The deficit is rising at a time of exceptionally low unemployment and solid economic growth, rather than during a crisis, which is typically when spending elevates.

  • Deficits are expected to remain above $1 trillion indefinitely, rising to $1.7 trillion in 2030, with the total debt held by the public rising to 98% of GDP in that time.

Details: CBO projects real economic growth of 2.2% this year and an average of 1.7% through 2030.

  • Unemployment is expected to rise to 4.4% during that time.
  • Interest rates are projected to rise above 3%.
  • Inflation is projected to remain at 2%, meaning the estimates are priced for an almost ideal backdrop.

Don't sleep: The deficits in the latest projections are $160 billion higher through 2029 than in CBO’s prior baseline, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) points out.

  • "This is the net effect of roughly $500 billion in new debt from tax cuts in December’s appropriations package, partially offset by economic and technical changes."
  • The 2020 deficit is also dramatically higher than just five years ago when the deficit totaled $442 billion.

What they're saying: "Every year we set a new post-war record for debt as a share of the economy, every year the Congressional Budget Office warns that debt is rising unsustainably, and every year our largest trust funds get closer to depleting their reserves," CRFB president Maya MacGuineas says in a statement.

  • "Ignoring what is staring us right in the face is fiscal malfeasance."

Go deeper:

Go deeper

3 hours ago - World

Scoop: Iran preparing to enrich weapons-grade uranium, Israel warns U.S.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi holds a press conference. Photo: Presidency of Iran handout via Getty

Israel has shared intelligence over the past two weeks with the U.S. and several European allies suggesting that Iran is taking technical steps to prepare to enrich uranium to 90% purity — the level needed to produce a nuclear weapon, two U.S. sources briefed on the issue tell me.

Why it matters: Enriching to 90% would bring Iran closer than ever to the nuclear threshold. The Israeli warnings come as nuclear talks resume in Vienna, with Iran returning to the negotiating table on Monday after a five-month hiatus.

Biden: Fight against Omicron won't include "shutdowns or lockdowns"

Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

President Biden on Monday said that the new coronavirus variant, Omicron, is "a cause for concern, not a cause for panic."

Driving the news: Biden said later this week the administration will be releasing a strategy on how "we're going to fight COVID this winter. Not with shutdowns or lockdowns, but with more widespread vaccinations, boosters, testing and more."

Updated 4 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Omicron dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Health: WHO says Omicron poses "very high" risk — Fauci says Omicron variant will "inevitably" be found in U.S. — U.S. restricts air travel from 8 countries over Omicron concerns.
  2. Politics: Biden says fight against Omicron won't include "shutdowns or lockdowns."
  3. States: New York declares state of emergency amid concerns over Omicron.
  4. World: Omicron adds urgency to vaccinating worldWHO warns against travel bans on southern African countries — First North American Omicron cases identified in Canada.
  5. Variant tracker: Where different strains are spreading.

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