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Expand chart
Data: Congressional Budget Office; Chart: Axios Visuals

The Congressional Budget Office expects the U.S. budget deficit will top $1 trillion in fiscal year 2020, the first trillion-dollar deficit in history not caused by the Great Recession.

Why it matters: The deficit is rising at a time of exceptionally low unemployment and solid economic growth, rather than during a crisis, which is typically when spending elevates.

  • Deficits are expected to remain above $1 trillion indefinitely, rising to $1.7 trillion in 2030, with the total debt held by the public rising to 98% of GDP in that time.

Details: CBO projects real economic growth of 2.2% this year and an average of 1.7% through 2030.

  • Unemployment is expected to rise to 4.4% during that time.
  • Interest rates are projected to rise above 3%.
  • Inflation is projected to remain at 2%, meaning the estimates are priced for an almost ideal backdrop.

Don't sleep: The deficits in the latest projections are $160 billion higher through 2029 than in CBO’s prior baseline, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) points out.

  • "This is the net effect of roughly $500 billion in new debt from tax cuts in December’s appropriations package, partially offset by economic and technical changes."
  • The 2020 deficit is also dramatically higher than just five years ago when the deficit totaled $442 billion.

What they're saying: "Every year we set a new post-war record for debt as a share of the economy, every year the Congressional Budget Office warns that debt is rising unsustainably, and every year our largest trust funds get closer to depleting their reserves," CRFB president Maya MacGuineas says in a statement.

  • "Ignoring what is staring us right in the face is fiscal malfeasance."

Go deeper:

Go deeper

Salesforce rolls the dice on Slack

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Salesforce's likely acquisition of workplace messaging service Slack — not yet a done deal but widely anticipated to be announced Tuesday afternoon — represents a big gamble for everyone involved.

For Slack, challenged by competition from Microsoft, the bet is that a deeper-pocketed owner like Salesforce, with wide experience selling into large companies, will help the bottom line.

FBI stats show border cities are among the safest

Data: FBI, Kansas Bureau of Investigation; Note: This table includes the eight largest communities on the U.S.-Mexico border and eight other U.S. cities similar in population size and demographics; Chart: Naema Ahmed/Axios

U.S. communities along the Mexico border are among the safest in America, with some border cities holding crime rates well below the national average, FBI statistics show.

Why it matters: The latest crime data collected by the FBI from 2019 contradicts the narrative by President Trump and others that the U.S.-Mexico border is a "lawless" region suffering from violence and mayhem.

Miriam Kramer, author of Space
2 hours ago - Science

The rise of military space powers

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Nations around the world are shoring up their defensive and offensive capabilities in space — for today's wars and tomorrow's.

Why it matters: Using space as a warfighting domain opens up new avenues for technologically advanced nations to dominate their enemies. But it can also make those countries more vulnerable to attack in novel ways.

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