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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Yesterday marked 25 years since the UN's Framework Convention on Climate Change entered into force.

Why it matters: The deal struck in Rio de Janeiro laid the foundation for negotiations — lots of negotiations — that ultimately produced the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

The big picture: Assessing the whole UNFCCC is more than I'll bite off here. But few would argue that the ambition in Rio is translating into policy steps anywhere near commensurate with the problem.

  • The treaty called for "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic human-induced interference with the climate system."

By the numbers: The average concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide in 1994 was 359 parts per million, per National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration records.

  • Last year the average was 409 ppm, and now it's even higher.
  • 2018 was the 4th-warmest year in modern temperature records that date back to the late 1800s, per NOAA.
  • The last 5 years comprise the 5 warmest on record, according to multiple datasets, and 9 of the top 10 have occurred since 2005.
  • Global CO2 emissions rose in 2017 and 2018, ending a 3-year plateau.

But, but, but: Diplomacy and negotiations under the UNFCCC have also led to greater global collaboration on confronting climate change and at least agreeing to what the goals should be.

The Paris deal aims to prevent global temperatures from rising 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with an aspirational target of holding the rise to 1.5°C.

  • That would require extremely steep emissions cuts in the coming years and decades, and right now hitting even the 2°C target looks unlikely.
  • However, the structure of the non-binding Paris deal aims for countries lay out more ambitious emissions plans.

What they're saying: Patricia Espinosa, the top UN climate official, said in a statement marking the birthday that there have been successes and disappointments.

  • "We have the Paris Agreement, and we have the guidelines strengthening that agreement. What we need now are results," she said, calling for more ambition and action to stabilize temperatures.

The bottom line: Major studies conclude that global warming is already having harmful effects worldwide that are expected to worsen as temperatures rise.

Go deeper: Key global warming target slipping out of reach, UN scientists warn

Go deeper

Capitol review panel recommends more police, mobile fencing

Photo: Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

A panel appointed by Congress to review security measures at the Capitol is recommending several changes, including mobile fencing and a bigger Capitol police force, to safeguard the area after a riotous mob breached the building on Jan 6.

Why it matters: Law enforcement officials have warned there could be new plots to attack the area and target lawmakers, including during a speech President Biden is expected to give to a joint session of Congress.

Financial fallout from the Texas deep freeze

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Texas has thawed out after an Arctic freeze last month threw the state into a power crisis. But the financial turmoil from power grid shock is just starting to take shape.

Why it matters: In total, electricity companies are billions of dollars short on the post-storm payments they now owe to the state's grid operator. There's no clear path for how they will pay — something being watched closely across the country as extreme weather events become more common.

U.S. Chamber decides against political ban for Capitol insurrection

A pedestrian passes the U.S. Chamber of Commerce headquarters as it undergoes renovation. Photo: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce revealed Friday it won't withhold political donations from lawmakers who simply voted against certifying the presidential election results and instead decide on a case-by-case basis.

Why it matters: The Chamber is the marquee entity representing businesses and their interests in Washington. Its memo, obtained exclusively by Axios, could set the tone for businesses debating how to handle their candidate and PAC spending following the Jan. 6 Capitol attack.