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The issue:

The Chicago murder and crime rates are predicted to have decreased in 2017, per a new report from NYU's Brennan Center for Justice. Chicago's murder rate is expected to drop by 2.4 percent and its the crime rate by 3.4 percent.

Previously, Donald Trump mentioned spiking violent crime rates throughout his campaign and presidency, stating the murder rate is "the highest it's been in 47 years" and that he'd "send in the Feds" to Chicago.

The facts:

Trump's assertion about the murder rate isn't true — there's been a steady decrease since 1991. On April 18, the Brennan Center for Justice released an analysis of crime trends in the United States over the last 25 years, stating that "crime rates have dropped dramatically and remain near historic lows despite localized increases in some places."

The Brennan Center called Trump's claim of a historic yearly murder rate increase "highly concentrated" due to a murder rate jump in just three cities — Baltimore, Chicago, and Washington — with the caveat that murders are at such a historic low that "modest increases in the murder rate may appear large in percentage terms."

Why it matters:

The murder rate has jumped in certain cities, though certainly not to the exaggerated levels presented by Trump — and the Brennan Center's analysis shows how some stats can be cherrypicked to present an incorrect view of the nation as a whole.

Go deeper

"Atmospheric river" swings Northern California from drought to flood

The bomb cyclone and atmospheric river seen via satellite on Sunday. The center of the storm is at the middle of the comma shape, due west of Washington State. (CIRA/RAMMB)

A series of powerful "atmospheric river" storms are delivering historic amounts of rainfall across parts of drought-stricken California and the Pacific Northwest from this weekend, forecasters warn.

Why it matters: A strong atmospheric river, packing large amounts of moisture, is predicted to whiplash Northern California from drought to flood.

Mike Allen, author of AM
5 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Fauci fires back at Rand Paul for slam on tonight's "Axios on HBO"

Responding to charges by Sen. Rand Paul on Sunday's "Axios on HBO," NIAID director Anthony Fauci told "ABC This Week" that it's "molecularly impossible" for U.S.-funded bat virus research in China to have produced COVID-19.

Why it matters: The issue 0f Wuhan research was reignited on the right last week with a National Institutes of Health letter to Congress disclosing more about the research.

Manchin, Schumer huddle with Biden in Delaware to discuss spending bill

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (left) and Sen. Joe Manchin at the U.S. Capitol in 2014. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) will meet with President Biden and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Sunday morning in Delaware as Democrats look to reach an agreement on the massive spending measure.

Driving the news: Democrats are still negotiating what to keep in the bill and how to pay for it, with Biden saying on Thursday that the party does not have the votes to raise the corporate tax rate.

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