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Photo: Peter Zay/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

President Trump told "Fox & Friends" on Monday that he plans to announce his pick to replace Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court on Friday or Saturday.

The state of play: Axios has heard that Trump's choices to succeed Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg are down to two women, both federal appeals court judges. The frontrunners are Amy Coney Barrett of Chicago, the early favorite, and Barbara Lagoa, who is viewed as easier to confirm. The Senate confirmed Lagoa 80-15 last year, so many Democrats have already voted for her.

  • Lagoa is a Cuban American from Florida, and Trump is being told the choice could help him win the state. He said Saturday he's never met Lagoa.
  • Even people in the West Wing remind us: With Trump, you never know till it's actually done.
  • Trump told "Fox & Friends" that he was down to "five, probably four" choices — but discussed Lagoa most at length.

Look for Senate Republicans to barrel ahead with the confirmation process as if they were going to vote before Election Day.

  • Trump said Monday that he wants a vote to take place before Nov. 3.
  • The vote could wind up being held after the election, in the lame-duck session in November. Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska say they want to wait. Two more objections, and there wouldn't be enough Republican votes to go ahead in the next 43 days.

The lame duck is the fallback. Top GOP officials at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue see huge risk in waiting.

  • Say Trump loses ... or Republicans lose control of the Senate ... or both.
  • There'd be enormous pressure on Republicans to defer to the incoming winners. Some unexpected GOP senator could suddenly defect.
  • Collins said in a statement this weekend: "[T]he decision on a lifetime appointment to the Supreme Court should be made by the president who is elected on November 3rd."

That's why antsy Republicans — being called "fill the seat" hawks — want a pre-election vote.

  • Joe Biden yesterday urged Republican senators to resist jamming a nomination: "Please follow your conscience."
  • Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer appeared in Brooklyn last night with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, vowing to fight a GOP rush.
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Go deeper

Oct 28, 2020 - Politics & Policy

Supreme Court won't expedite Pennsylvania GOP's request to block mail-in ballot extension

Amy Coney Barrett being sworn in by Chief Justice John Roberts. Photo: Fred Schilling/Collection of the Supreme Court of the United States via Getty Images

The Supreme Court voted 5-3 on Wednesday to deny a bid from Pennsylvania Republicans to expedite their request to shorten the deadline for receiving mail-in ballots. Newly confirmed Justice Amy Coney Barrett did not participate in the decision.

Why it matters: A lower court ruling allowing ballots to be counted until 5pm on Nov. 6, as long as they are postmarked by Election Day, will remain in place for now.

Supreme Court rejects second GOP effort to cut absentee ballot deadline in N.C.

Photo: Robert Alexander/Getty Images

The Supreme Court, for the second time in two days, rejected a GOP request to shorten the deadline mail-in ballots must be received by North Carolina officials to be counted.

The state of play: The state's deadline had been extended from 3 days to 9 days post-Election Day.

The GOP's monstrous math problem

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Republicans, win or lose next week, face a big — and growing — math problem.

The state of play: They're relying almost exclusively on a shrinking demographic (white men), living in shrinking areas (small, rural towns), creating a reliance on people with shrinking incomes (white workers without college degrees) to survive.