Sep 30, 2019

Poll shows net 20-point swing in favor of impeaching and removing Trump

Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Public opinion on impeaching and removing President Trump from office is continuing to shift in Democrats' favor, according to new Quinnipiac and CNN/SSRS polls released Monday.

The big picture: The polls continue the trend of increased favorability for impeachment in the days since Speaker Nancy Pelosi launched a formal impeachment inquiry into allegations that Trump pushed Ukrainian officials to investigate Joe Biden and his son, Hunter, over unsubstantiated corruption allegations.

By the numbers: Quinnipiac found that 47% of voters favor impeaching and removing Trump from office, compared with 47% who do not. A Quinnipiac poll released on Sept. 25 found showed voters did not want to impeach and remove Trump at 57%-37% split — indicating a net 20-point swing in less than a week.

  • 50% of those surveyed said Trump did something wrong in propositioning Ukraine to investigate Biden, while 40% said he did not. Along party lines, that breaks down to...
    • Democrats: 86%-3%
    • Republicans: 9%-83%
    • Independents: 52%-41%

CNN found a 47%-45% split in favor of impeaching and removing Trump from office, up from 41%-54% in May.

  • CNN notes: "The change since May has largely come among independents and Republicans. About three-quarters of Democrats favor impeaching Trump and removing him from office, roughly the same as in May, while among independents, support for impeachment and removal has risen 11 points to 46% among independents and 8 points to 14% among Republicans."

Between the lines: 56% of those surveyed in the Quinnipiac poll believe members of Congress favor impeaching Trump "more based on partisan politics than on the facts of the case." 36% say the newly invigorated calls for impeachment have been driven by the facts.

Methodology: The Quinnipiac poll was conducted from Sep. 27-29 and surveyed 1,115 adults with a 3.6% margin of error. The CNN poll was conducted from Sep. 24-29 and surveyed 1,009 adults with a 3.5% margin of error.

Go deeper: Pelosi's point of no return

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Warren overtakes Biden in RealClearPolitics national poll average

Elizabeth Warren at the Giffords/March for Our Lives forum in Las Vegas. Photo: Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Elizabeth Warren has taken over as the top 2020 Democrat in the national RealClearPolitics average of polls for the first time this cycle.

Why it matters: While Warren holds just a 0.2-point average lead over Joe Biden, she's led the pack in the last two Quinnipiac polls and has consistently won more positive attention online than any other candidate in recent weeks.

Go deeperArrowOct 8, 2019

Trump's impeachment poll warnings

Data: Nixon survey by Gallup, Clinton survey by CNN, Trump survey by Monmouth University. (The Gallup question changed from "Do you think President Nixon should be impeached and compelled to leave the Presidency, or not?" to "Do you think his actions are serious enough to warrant his being removed from the Presidency, or not?" after Feb. 1974.) Chart: Axios Visuals

Public support for President Trump's impeachment is higher than it was for Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton when the House launched impeachment inquiries against them.

Why it matters: Support for impeachment of Trump is still less than half the country — 44% in the Monmouth University poll shown here; 47% in a CNN poll. And the polling reflects a 50-50 country. But the Ukraine scandal is pushing the numbers up.

Go deeperArrowOct 6, 2019

College students are all in on impeachment inquiry

Data: College Reaction; Note: ±3.3 margin of error; Chart: Axios Visuals

Three quarters of all college students support the opening of the impeachment inquiry into President Trump, including nearly all college Democrats and a lopsided majority of independents, according to the latest Axios/College Reaction Poll.

Why it matters: It shows that college students are polarized — with only about one in five college Republicans supporting the impeachment inquiry — but overall, they're far more likely than their adult counterparts to endorse the impeachment process.

Go deeperArrowOct 15, 2019