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Photo: Mike Theiler / Getty Images

President Trump has privately mulled at least three potential replacements for chief of staff John Kelly.

The list: House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, OMB chief and acting CFPB head Mick Mulvaney and businessman Tom Barrack. ABC News first reported the list earlier Friday.

What we're hearing:

  • Sources close to McCarthy and Mulvaney tell me they don't believe any discussions have happened recently with the president that would lead them to think any such change is imminent.
  • But Trump has been quietly sounding out friends, asking them what they think of Mulvaney and McCarthy. He often doesn't make it clear why he's asking the question; and friends sometimes make the logical leap because Trump privately disparages Kelly and vents his frustration about the chief.
  • In a recent conversation with Barrack, Trump asked his longtime friend whether he would ever consider coming in and serving as chief of staff. Barrack replied that it would ruin their friendship and that he thought Kelly was doing a good job, according to a source familiar with the conversation.

What happens next: Nobody knows. But the idea that a change could happen imminently simply doesn't gel with my reporting. The conversations are too loose, and it doesn't appear that Trump is settled on a solution. Also, Trump hates firing people and it would probably require Kelly to offer his resignation. (Something the White House says has not happened.)

Bottom line: Two things appear to be clear:

  1. Kelly's term as chief is entering a wintry period. This is almost inevitable when you work for Trump. (Just ask Jeff Sessions and Rex Tillerson.) But it doesn't necessarily mean you'll lose your job. (Just ask Jeff Sessions and Rex Tillerson.) 
  2. Kelly has lost the support — though never lost the essential respect —of a good deal of the White House staff.

Go deeper

Companies turn to pay hikes to lure workers

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

More hourly workers are getting a pay bump. Thank the new war for employees.

Why it matters: To meet the demand that's only expected to get more ferocious as reopening continues, companies are having to bid up to attract workers.

Latino mental health crisis grows

Shoshana Gordon/Axios

Over 40% of Latino adults have reported symptoms of depression during the pandemic, in contrast to 25% of white non-Hispanics, the CDC reports.

Why it matters: The emotional distress is especially acute for Latinos who had COVID-19, some of them tell Noticias Telemundo.

Misinformation is just one part of a vaccine trust problem

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

COVID-19 is the first major pandemic in the social media era — offering experts a rare opening to study the relationship between online misinformation and human behavior on a large scale.

Why it matters: As misinformation about COVID-19 vaccines runs rampant, researchers are trying to measure how much memes and messages with false information can alter someone's decision to get vaccinated.